Earnings season kicks off this week and analysts’ expected EPS growth in the MSCI USA index is currently at 10%+ through 2021. Strong growth from tech firms is also helping boost the Nasdaq Composite Index, which just saw its market value climb to over half of that of the S&P 500.

What are your hopes and expectations for 2020? Corporate earnings markets are certainly feeling optimistic, as demonstrated by the historic highs of the forward P/E ratio, but earnings season will have to deliver if we hope to keep the good times rolling. Meanwhile, the bond market looks to already be experiencing some hardship, with the Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond (BBCB) Index yield-to-duration ratio kicking off 2020 by sinking to a record low. How do your clients feel about taking on greater duration-risk in exchange for lower returns?

U.S. companies have repatriated more than $1 trillion from foreign subsidiaries to their U.S. parents since 2017—more specifically, since the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Unemployment has since seen record lows and consumer spending remains strong, despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing and trade. But companies quickly set another record with the additional funds.

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high on Thursday and while the S&P 600 has risen over 460% since its financial-crisis lows, it—like many other markets—has yet to recapture its summer ’18 magic and continues to trade below previous peaks. In comparison, its large-cap counterpart—the S&P 500—has continued setting records into 2020, leaving many wondering… could it be overheated?

Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Fireside Charts of the new decade! We’re kicking off 2020 with a look at what made 2019 unique—for the first time ever, all major asset classes outperformed their historical averages. Also, after being a major drag on performance in 2018, multiple expansion accounted for nearly all (over 80%!) of the S&P 500’s total return.

Happy Friday, Fireside Charts readers, and welcome to our final post of 2019! The S&P 500 hit yet another all-time high yesterday following additional positive trade war news out of Washington, but we’re still seeing some mixed signals on market and economic health. Investors look to be bracing for a market turn and have been increasingly gathering expensive put options in a search for downside protection.

While the markets have so far reacted positively to news of a phase one trade deal with China, a closer look at the details reveals some potential issues—particularly when it comes to the volume of agricultural exports. Meanwhile, FedEx shares were down ~7% in pre-market trading this morning following a 40% year-over-year drop in profits for fiscal Q2 and a surprising correlation between the company’s performance and U.S. ISM Composite PMI is making us wonder what might be in store for the broader U.S. economy in 2020.

U.S. retail sales surprised to the downside in November, growing by only 0.2% and indicating a slow start to the holiday season. Could this spell trouble when consumer spending accounts for over 70% of GDP growth?

While the superstitious among us may have been braced for bad news today (happy Friday the 13th!) the headlines—and market reactions—were largely positive. Two major drags on economic outlook, the trade war and BREXIT, both made progress yesterday as the U.S. and China struck an “interim” trade deal and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tory Party won the U.K.’s general election, allaying fears of a “no-deal” BREXIT.

The U.S. political landscape isn’t the only thing that grew more rocky in 2019; S&P 500 volatility and drawdown frequency have increased significantly in the last decade, with days spent with a 3%+ drawdown up almost fivefold over the early 2010’s. Could this be part of the “mini-cycle” phenomenon we wrote about last month?