FIRESIDE CHARTS
Inflation Takes Off (In Some Sectors), Earnings Season Rolls On, U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets Record High
“Fed officials should go to the doctor if they think there is no inflation in the economy,” say Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. Medical care, education, and housing costs are soaring—and significantly outpacing the rest of the market. Healthcare earnings surprised in more than one way in Q3 (see the details in the charts below)… could such aggressive pricing increases be to thank?
S&P 500 Tests Trend Lines, Inflation Rises in China, and Steel & Aluminum PMI Send Positive Signs on Manufacturing
Happy Veteran’s Day, Fireside Charts readers! Out of respect for the holiday, the bond market is closed and no new economic reports are due out today, but even on a holiday Monday, analysts are likely keeping their eyes peeled for more U.S./China trade news.
U.S. Companies Face Wave of Maturing Debt, The Trade War is Benefiting Brazilian Soybean Farmers, and a Look at Aramco’s Valuation
News on earnings has been largely popular thus far as many companies continue to outperform expectations, but it isn’t all good news for corporate America; $4 trillion of maturing debt is coming due over the next five years, and the historically low interest rate environment only complicates the picture.
Q4 U.S. GDP Estimates Revised Lower Amid Sluggish Inflation & Manufacturing Prints, Conflicting Reports Emerge on China
In a surprise (and rare—this marks the first since the financial crisis) inter-meeting move, the Federal Reserve issued an emergency 50-basis point rate cut yesterday to help stabilize the markets. It provided a short-lived boost, but the markets plunged again by the end of the day to erase much of Monday’s rally…
A Closer Look at Last Week’s GDP and Jobs Reports
The S&P closed at another all-time high on Friday (that’s three new records set in a single week, by the way), thanks in large part to last week’s surprise GDP and jobs reports. Today, we take a closer look at the details
GDP, Earnings, Jobs, and Other Measures Exceeding Expectations
Happy Friday, Fireside Charts readers! We hope you all had a happy and safe Halloween, with plenty of candy to show for your trick-or-treating efforts. Now let’s shake off the sugar comas and take a look at the data: Wednesday’s rate cut wasn’t much of a surprise, so most of the chatter around the announcement has focused on the implication that the committee may be eyeing the pause button… and market expectations for a fourth cut this year adjusted accordingly.
73% of Companies Beat Earnings Estimates, Small Business Job Growth Disappoints, and China Crude Imports Outpace Demand
It’s Fed day! Whether the third consecutive interest rate cut happens this afternoon or not, the announcement will likely be sharing column inches with today’s other big release: Q3 GDP growth. 1.9% ain’t too shabby!
U.S. Deficit Soars 26% to 7-year High, Fed Expansion Tops $199 Billion, and USD Reverses Negative Trend
Warning: the latest federal deficit figure may leave you with sticker shock. The deficit surged 26% in fiscal 2019 to hit $984 billion, the highest point since we topped $1 trillion in 2012. This figure, in addition to the earnings that continue to roll in (heavyweights reporting this week include Alphabet, Facebook and Apple), will likely be a topic of conversation when the Fed kicks off their October meeting tomorrow.
CLO Market Continues to Climb, and U.S. Sees Modest Manufacturing Recovery Despite Global Slowdown
Earnings news remains mixed as we head into the weekend, with S&P profits dropping only ~1.2% so far—significantly less than the projected 4%+—and economic behemoth Amazon suffering a ~7% after-hours loss after posting its first quarterly profit decline in over two years.
2020 Earnings Estimates Suffer Sharpest Drop Since January, Positive News for the Housing Market, and Has U.S. Unemployment Bottomed?
Today’s another jam-packed day for earnings in a season that’s been largely mixed so far; headline names include Microsoft, Ford, Boeing, and Catepillar, among many others. We’re keeping our fingers crossed for good news, as the analyst outlook for 2020 seems to be increasingly weak; last week saw the steepest downward revision in nearly a year.