ECONOMICS & INVESTING
Directionally Correct but Precisely Wrong: How Behavioral Biases Often Lead to Suboptimal Outcomes
Behavioral finance plays a big role in the way that we think about investing. The idea that investors have consistent biases, many of which lead to suboptimal investment outcomes, is commonly accepted by…
Direct Impacts of Higher Oil Prices
Following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, Brent Crude Oil futures climbed over $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. On March 4th, the benchmark price rose by $7.96 to $112.93—the…
With Markets Charging Towards New Highs, Should Investors Wait for a “Better Deal”?
With the relatively unprecedented strength we have seen in global equity markets over the past ~2.5 years (with one rather extreme hiccup in between), some investors may be apprehensive about…
Debunking Some Bunk: Is September Really That Bad a Month?
Sometimes our industry grabs on to a concept and cannot let it go. Is September the worst month from a performance standpoint? Does it almost always go down? Should one avoid the markets in September? Let’s take a quick look.
How Should Investors Think About the Upcoming Election’s Impact on the Stock Market?
The top question we are being asked from advisors right now: “is there data that can help me anticipate stock market returns in an election year?” While we have outlined some key data worth examining, our takeaway is we would caution against making any significant investment decisions based on these trends.
LISTEN: PM Brendan Ryan on ‘Behind the Markets’
BCM Portfolio Manager Brendan Ryan, CFA® joined Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel of Wharton Business Radio’s Behind the Markets podcast to discuss why traditional asset allocation methods are no longer sufficient, emerging short- and long-term market trends, and how to use machine learning to pursue prudent risk taking in an era where it’s becoming more necessary than ever.
Watch: How to Invest Opportunistically and Defensively in a New Investment Paradigm
In this record-low interest rate environment, advisors will need to adapt—stepping beyond traditional asset allocation and the 60/40 portfolio to keep up with a shifting market that’s seen interest rates approaching zero and lower forward returns expected across all asset classes.
The Anatomy of a Bear Market
What does a typical bear market look like? How long do they last? When are the majority of the losses incurred?
Using Total Return to Meet Your Clients’ Withdrawal Needs
For decades most financial plans were created with withdrawal rates of 4 to 5% to meet clients’ living needs. Yet today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering around 0.65% and even the 30-year has a ~1.0% yield. Worse yet, yields on equities have also trended lower with the dividend yield of the S&P 500® Index sitting at ~2.1%.
Bond ETF’s Price Divergence From NAV: How Do We Tell Which Was “Right”?
“What happened to fixed income ETFs in the March sell-off?” So far, we’ve kept quiet on the subject. Not due to a lack of opinions, but because we felt we didn’t have much to add to the discussion. Our many fund sponsor and trading partners (SSGA, iShares, Invesco, and Jane Street to name a few) have done a fantastic job of providing detailed analyses on the subject.