FIRESIDE CHARTS
Consumer Sentiment Falls to Decade Low, Inflation Starts to Moderate, and Growth Slows in China
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a pandemic-era low of 70.2 this month—suffering its worst negative surprise on record—as hospitalization of children with Covid-19…
CPI Growth Slowed, Effects of Inflation, and the Federal Deficit is Only Getting Worse
Core CPI was up last month but the pace of growth slowed as expected. This was driven mainly by housing—as home price gains have topped the prior housing bubble peak—and Hotels—as long-awaited…
Consumer Credit on the Rise Again, Deferred Debt Mounting as Moratoriums Set to End, and Employment Still Down
As many Americans used the stimulus stipends to pay down credit cards and other revolving debt throughout most of 2020, it has subsequently began rising again in 2020. Meanwhile, nonrevolving…
Battle for Market Leadership Ongoing, Stronger than Expected Jobs Report, and Post WWII Inflation Episodes
The U.S. is still on the road to recovery and the battle for market leadership shows how bumpy that road has been. However, both the S&P 500® Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record…
U.S. Trade Deficit at Record High, Global Bond Yields are Falling, and the Delta Variant Causing More Economic Uncertainty
The U.S. trade deficit hit another record high this week as demand for domestic goods is on the rise . But many consumers are still choosing to save as the impact of the Delta Variant is still…
Covid-Induced Departure from Cities Slowing, Benefits Keeping Americans Unemployed, Europe on Path to Normal
It appears the mass exodus from cities due to Covid fear in cities is slowing down as the number of people moving out of apartments to buy houses has somewhat normalized. And with the return of…
Income Trends Continue Upward, Services are Driving Spending, and Pandemic Suppresses Asian Manufacturing PMI’s
Personal income is still well above pre-pandemic trends as we move into August but without government support, most of which was saved, this would not be the case. Inflation measures also remain…
“No Decision” from Fed, Commodities Still on the Rise, and Will China’s Crackdowns Affect U.S. Credit?
After Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Fed Chairman Powell says the U.S. economy is still a good deal away from making “substantial further progress”. Investors are waiting for a characterization of the…
Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist, New Home Sales Miss Expectations, and Europe’s Yield Curve Moves into the Negative
Although this past year has been about getting back to normal, history shows that this uninterrupted bull market still stands out as tech mega-caps come storming back. New home sales missed…
Delta Variant Threatens More Reopenings, Junk Bond Yields Remain Low, and Tech Crack Downs Threaten Chinese Market
The Delta variant could put a wrench in “normalization” as many businesses plan to return to their office this fall with ~100 million eligible people still not vaccinated. But the flash Markit PMI…