FIRESIDE CHARTS
Consumers Hold Onto Their Savings, Much Needed Relief for Seniors, What Clients Look For in a Financial Advisor
Consumer savings, which increased substantially during the pandemic, has remained near record levels. Social security payments are set to rise 8.7% providing much-needed relief to seniors. Key drivers…
Manufacturing Slowdown Gives Supply Chains Time to Catch Up, Consumers Continue to Spend, Markets Are Back to Normal
The Federal Reserve is getting its wish, manufacturing growth has decelerated markedly and is now barely positive. On the positive side, the slowdown has allowed supply chains to catch up which bodes…
Federal Reserve Threatens a Recession, Commodity and Housing Prices Fall, Millennials Leave the Markets
The Federal Reserve is threatening to push the economy into a recession to stamp out inflation if necessary, and the market is taking them seriously. Market prices on commodities and other industrial…
Fed Narratives Continue to Spook Markets
Jerome Powell’s tone during Wednesday’s press conference has market participants considered the Fed is determined to break the economy in order to get inflation under control. However, many forward leading inflation indicators…
Inflation report roils markets, housing activity continues to be weak, Norway offers a glimpse into the EV future.
Last Tuesday’s CPI reading of +.1% month over month sent shockwaves through the market as forecasters hoped for a -.1% decrease month over month buoyed by big declines in oil prices.
The Great Return to work?, Inflation looks to be headed lower and Global business cycles continue to diverge
Most data is pointing towards improving supply constraints in both physical goods and the labor market, likely implying declining inflation in the near-term. Russia has shut down the NordStream pipeline further exacerbating Europe’s energy…
Federal Reserve Officials Talk Tough At Jackson Hole, Interest Rates Rise, and Equity Markets Fall
At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials dissuaded the market of any notion that a pivot is around the corner. These communications, coupled with more positive economic data, sent interest rates up…
2023 Cuts No Longer Priced In, Companies Capitalize on Lower Equity Prices, and Update on Manufacturing
After recent economic data exceeded expectations, futures markets are no longer pricing in cuts to the Federal Funds rate in the first half of 2023. The markets are giving the Federal Reserve room act…
Jobs Recover to Pre-pandemic Levels, Market Bets on Falling Inflation, GDP Expected to Rebound in Q3
With the release of last Friday’s jobs report the U.S. economy has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, a momentous achievement. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening…
Global PMI Contracts, First “Full Employment” Recession, and the Mortgage Rate and 10-year UST Spread
The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite…