Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
June 14, 2022 | ECONOMICS & INVESTING
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%,[1] with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week.[2] The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal funds rate on average since 1974.[3]
As of April 1, 2022, the last date for which the Fed funds data was available in FRED, the two-year yield was about 210 basis points above the Federal funds rate. Yesterday (June 13, 2022), the two-year yield soared to 260 basis points over the Federal funds rate,[4] which would be the largest spread in the dataset since June of 1976 (when FRED data is available on the 2-year yield).
The spread is especially large considering the currently low target rate, which is well under the average of 4.75% since 1954.
With the market so far ahead of the Federal Reserve’s schedule, it appears poised to absorb an additional 200 basis points of hikes to a target of 2.75 to 3.0%, near where the Federal Reserve had noted market expectations were in their May meeting (3.13%).[5]
A faster rate hike schedule, paired with clarity on where they will take a pause, seems warranted, given where the market for short-term treasuries is currently positioned.
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[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220504.htm
[2] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-meeting-inflation-rate-may-2022/card/fed-s-powell-quashes-talk-of-75-basis-point-rate-rise-B04gZgvExaHqd63mbxFq
[3] AIM analysis of Federal Reserve Data accessed via FRED on 6/13/2022 11pm for series DSG2 and FEDFUNDS (all charts and references to data in charts), with data available through April 2022. The FEDFUNDS series is only available monthly, with fed rates reported on the first of each month since July 1954.
[4] https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
[5] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20220504.htm
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