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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Consumer Confidence Ticks Lower, the Mega-Caps Keep Busy, and the Gold Rush Continues

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jul29, 2020 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Consumer confidence has dipped as congress continues to hammer out the details of the next stimulus package amid a stalled recovery. The tech giants continue to outperform even while the heads of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Facebook sit together before Congress today on antitrust allegations. Will continued strong performance from these market leaders—who have been making deals at the fastest pace in half a decade and also report earnings this week—be enough to blunt broad market losses? And as demand for gold pushes prices to all-time highs, is the 10-year TIPS yield likely to be driven even lower?


1. While economic activity has recovered significantly from late March and early April, progress has stalled.

Source: ANZ Research, from 7/29/20



2. More fiscal stimulus is needed, but the second round is unlikely to be as large as the first.


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/28/20



3. Consumers drive the U.S. economy, confidence would likely be much lower without federal supplemental income replacement.


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/28/20



4. The coronavirus accelerated pre-existing trends.


7.29 coronavirus accellerated

Source: McKinsey, from 7/28/20



5. The earnings decline for the S&P 500 is expected to be “average” for a recession.


Source: LPL Research, from 7/29/20



6. S&P 500 mega-caps may still be a good way to capture international outperformance if it comes.


Source: Pavilion Global Markets, from 7/29/20



7. We can argue about the magnitudes, but the markets are trying to separate winners from losers.


Source: Arbor Research & Trading, from 7/29/20



8. Cash is king in a recession.


Source: Bloomberg, from 7/28/20



9. Notable for a sector that has always been highly cyclical, the wave of bankruptcies suggests a large permanent loss of capital.


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 7/28/20



10. If you’re watching Gold, make sure to keep an eye on real yields as well.


Source: St. Louis FRED, from 7/29/20



11. How did Americans use their stimulus checks?


Source: Statista, from 7/15/20





It’ll be a busy week for the tech giants, who—in addition to testifying before congress—report Q2 earnings this week. To give the numbers some context, watch our Lead Portfolio Manager Dave Haviland give a quick 5-minute video review of the second quarter or read our 2Q20 written market commentary.


Watch now:  BCM's Market Commentary


Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.