The Economy, Business Investment, Consumer Spending
August 11, 2023 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Inflation continues its downward trajectory, and economic growth may be accelerating. Accelerating growth may keep interest rates higher despite lower inflation. While this may create a confusing investment environment, it is positive for companies’ operating results. Along the same lines, small businesses are planning to increase their capital expenditures. Spending on services has been robust but there has been weakness in goods spending. Rising credit card debt has been making headlines. A different kind of deflation.
1. Shelter inflation is likely to fall consistently over the coming year, putting downward pressure on headline core inflation:
Source: FRBSF Read full article
2. The Atlanta Federal Reserves third quarter GDP estimate increase to over 4% following the release of recent economic data:
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
3. Companies’ revenues and profits grow with the economy:
Source: BofA Global Research
4. Many business owners held off on capital expenditures in 2022 due to the anticipated recession which has yet to materialize:
Source: The Daily Shot 8/9/2023
5. Notably, consumers are prioritizing travel spending over:
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
6. Cardboard box manufactures and shipping companies, such as UPS and FedEx, have reported weakness as well:
Source: Macrobond
7. Despite the anecdotal increase in headlines, revolving consumer credit fell month-over-month in July:
Source: The Daily Shot 8/8/2023
8. As a percentage of disposable income, revolving consumer credit is still below pre-pandemic levels:
Source: The Daily Shot 8/8/2023
9. Pockets of recent speculation have been “deflating” over the past week:
Source: The Daily Shot 8/11/2023
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