The Economy, Supply and Demand, Emerging Markets
April 18, 2024 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Interest rates are moving higher as continued economic strength has tempered the market’s expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. With less than a week to go until the first advance release, the Atlanta Fed is forecasting that the economy grew nearly 3% in the first quarter. The U.S. manufacturing sector is also showing signs of promise. Unfortunately, growth and inflation go hand in hand. Supply is currently winning the game of tug of war with demand that sets the price of oil. Emerging markets ex. China. Copper. World travelers.
1. The mix of strong economic releases and hotter than expected inflation data sent interest rates shooting higher:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/16/2024
2. Higher than expected retail sales drove the recent upward revision:
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
3. U.S. Manufacturing Production rose for the second month in a row:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/17/2024
4. U.S. businesses are reporting a pickup in activity:
Source: Oxford Economics
5. The Beige Book survey also revealed that concerns about tight labor and financial markets are waning outside of the housing market:
Source: Oxford Economics
6. The U.S. economy is the envy of the developed world but that comes at the price of stickier inflation:
7. Due to strong demand, the oil market could be particularly sensitive to supply disruptions:
Source: Bloomberg via @mayhem4markets and The Daily Chartbook
8. U.S. drillers still aren’t increasing rig counts in response to higher prices:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/15/2024
9. Investors perceive China as being uniquely challenged compared to broad emerging markets:
10. Boosting household consumption is key to China’s long-term economic success but household consumption as a percentage of GDP is moving in the wrong direction:
Source: Capital Economics
11. Further electrifying the economy will require a lot of copper:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/16/2024
12. Americans are increasingly looking abroad for their vacation plans:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/18/2024
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