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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Market Movement, Regional Activity Updates, and a Look at EM Manufacturing

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Feb03, 2020 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Friday was a dark day in the markets that saw the Dow and the S&P wipe out their gains for the year. Utilities have surged as investors have begun seeking safety and regional PMI's look to have turned a corner, though Chicago is lagging the pack and continues in contraction. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has quite the task on their hands with the reopening of the markets following the extended Lunar New Year holiday and onset of the coronavirus. The central bank injected an unprecedented $174 billion of liquidity to help stabilize the market, which opened over 8% lower after having been closed since January 23rd. And while the China slowdown and coronavirus outbreak has risen fears about muting the budding growth in the EM sphere, India's Manufacturing PMI print rose significantly in January—will it be enough to limit some of the losses spurred by the pandemic? Earnings reports will continue to roll in this week and we'll also be waiting to see if any of the U.S.'s recent manufacturing gains materialize in Friday's January jobs report.

 

1. As always, we are watching closely, but refuse to act emotionally...

 

S&P 500 January 2020

Source: The Chart Store, as of 1/31/20

 

 

2. Too far too fast? Emotion-driven buying?

 

Dow Jones Utilities Rise

Source: The Chart Store, as of 1/31/20

 

 

3. Of all the Regional Fed surveys in January, only Chicago continued to contract.

 

change in regional pmis fed indexes

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

4. After being closed for the New Year holiday for a week, the Chinese Central Bank is acting to calm markets...

 

China pboc $174 billion liquidity injection

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

5. Yet fear is clearly winning the day...

 

Chinese stock market losses

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

6. While the current coronavirus is more infectious than SARS, so far it is much less deadly...

 

Coronavirus vs. SARS

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

7. While China's January Manufacturing PMI came in at a solid 51.1, South Korea dropped back into contraction (less than 50).

 

South Korea Manufacturing PMI

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

8. A reminder on just how fragile economic growth can be...

 

Eurozone GDP QoQ

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

9. India's manufacturing index soared in January!

 

India Manufacturing PMI

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

10. Fires and virus fear are not helping down under...

 

Australia AIG manufacturing PMI

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 2/3/20

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more insights from BCM and a look at the stories & trends we followed closely in January, sign up for our monthly newsletter and keep your eyes on your inbox this week!

 

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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.