Manufacturing Recovery Continues, Bracing for Trend Reversals, and Bankruptcies Approach 2009 Territory
January 6, 2021 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Manufacturing is kicking off 2021 on a positive note—coming in well-above pre-pandemic levels both domestically and in several international markets. Meanwhile, we’re left wondering when trends in global liquidity expansion and tech dominance could reverse… and what the fallout might be. And those aren’t the only potential trend reversals we’re keeping an eye out for… after more than doubling its market cap in just a couple of months, could Bitcoin be flying too close to the sun? Bankruptcy filings meanwhile soared in 2020 to their highest level since the Financial Crisis, and it could spell trouble for investors relying on junk bonds for yield in this record-low interest rate environment. Do you have an alternative in place?
1. U.S. manufacturing is following the Chinese lead…manufacturing has recovered and then some…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/5/21
2. Manufacturing in the Eurozone was also impressive:
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/5/21
3. Since the Great Recession, global liquidity has increased by ~$20 trillion. What happens when it is withdrawn from the system? Or must it stay? If it does, what about inflation?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/6/21
4. Is tech’s recent run sustainable?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/5/21
5. Despite some spectacular IPOs in 2020, private equity dramatically underperformed the NASDAQ and S&P 500 last year.
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/6/21
6. First, it was a way for criminals to transact. Then it was sold as a “currency”. Then it was supposed to be like a stock. If ever the “emperor has no clothes”…parabola up, parabola down!
P.S. Crypto has no store of value, has no customers, no sales, no earnings, no backing of a nation’s production and is much slower than the technology used by Visa and Mastercard today. And if your “coins” are lost or stolen…you have no recourse.
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/6/21
7. Investors have shunned EM stocks more than “usual”. Will this produce a recovery that is stronger than “usual”?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/5/21
8. If you own junk bonds (high yield), this may be a great trim/exit point…
Source: Bloomberg, from 1/6/21
9. If tar sand oil production, one of the costliest, is recovering, can U.S. and global shale production be far behind?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/5/21
10. Is this the cause of the President’s recent executive orders targeting Chinese companies?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 1/6/21
11. As the pandemic wears on, the allure of working from home has fallen dramatically. The 5-day figure is about half of the summer survey…
Source: Stanford University, as of 5/2020
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.