FIRESIDE CHARTS
New High from the S&P 500, the Yield Curve Normalizes, and Manufacturing & Services PMI’s V Out
The S&P 500® Index closed at a new record high on Friday, boosted by stronger-than-expected manufacturing and housing data. The mega-cap outliers are still running the show though as small- and mid-caps—and even ~60% of S&P 500 companies—post losses.
Is Prince singing 1999 again?
Some interesting charts today…
Manufacturing Backed Up, Breaking Down the S&P, and Remember the Trade War?
The NY Fed’s Manufacturing Index backed up a bit in August after a near perfect v-shaped comeback while recovery in other advanced economies of the world also seems to have plateaued. Large-caps continue to outperform mid- and small-caps although that outperformance can almost entirely be attributed to select subset of companies and sectors.
Record Earnings Surprises, Gold’s Correlation to Tech and More GDP Figures
Q2 earnings expectations as a whole had the largest margin of surprise to the upside in the last decade. This itself was not a huge surprise though after seeing some of the largest downward expectation revisions.
An Unemployment Milestone, a Look at Inflation, and Bankruptcies Hit a 10-year High
While the U. S. unemployment situation is still dire, we hit a milestone this week: for the first time since mid-March, first-time claims for state unemployment insurance fell below one million. U.S. consumer prices have risen more than projected though as states continue to ease lockdown restrictions, and it has some concerned about inflation…
The U.S. Struggles to Make Rent, and is EM Ready to Run?
There’s a lot going on in D.C these days, but an effective response on housing—or a cross-party compromise on the next round of stimulus funding—doesn’t appear to be one of them. Stimulus talks have reached a stalemate as the share of the population unable to meet housing costs soars.
Breaking Down the Jobs Report, Bond Yields Dwindle Further, and America Goes Back to School
Congress reached an impasse on the next round of stimulus funding last week—particularly the boost to unemployment benefits—just ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Could this back to school season be the start of more trouble for public health and the economy?
Some Perspective on GDP, Record Earnings Beats, and Real Rates Continue to Sink
The 32.9% annualized hit to U.S. GDP may have cast a shadow over the end of last week, but a comparison to the Eurozone shows that we were relatively successful in blunting the economic damage. Government debt is soaring though and is set to climb higher when Congress comes to an agreement on the next round of stimulus funding…
The Record-Setting GDP Hit, Shaky Earnings Estimates, and Big Tech Gets Bigger
Stocks closed lower yesterday after a record-setting blow to U.S. GDP revealed the extent of the virus’s economic impact, the contraction was the sharpest in modern U.S. history. Annualized figures (re: the oft-quoted 32.9%) can be deceptive during periods of swift change though, and growth is expected in Q3
Consumer Confidence Ticks Lower, the Mega-Caps Keep Busy, and the Gold Rush Continues
Consumer confidence has dipped as congress continues to hammer out the details of the next stimulus package amid a stalled recovery. The tech giants continue to outperform even while the heads of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Facebook sit together before Congress today on antitrust allegations.