Some interesting charts today… Have a great weekend!
1. Does anyone else feel that this market looks and feels a lot like 1999?
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20Does%20anyone%20else%20feel%20that%20this%20market%20looks%20and%20feels%20a%20lot%20like%201999-png-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/21/20
2. The main difference has been the speed…the faster pace down and the fastest recovery…ever….
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20The%20main%20difference%20has%20been%20the%20spee-png-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/21/20
3. Despite slight moderation last month, the Philly Fed is still showing manufacturing ahead of pre-pandemic activity levels…
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20Despite%20slight%20moderation%20last%20month-png-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/21/20
4. As the markets digest recent gains a bit, what does the historic picture look like in election years?
![8.21 As the markets digest recent gains a bit-1](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/8.21%20As%20the%20markets%20digest%20recent%20gains%20a%20bit-1.png?width=713&name=8.21%20As%20the%20markets%20digest%20recent%20gains%20a%20bit-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
5…And an even longer viewpoint. In particular, will bond yields come back to the 4-5% historic inflection point?
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20And%20an%20even%20longer%20viewpoint-png.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
6. Understandably, the Covid shutdowns are causing bond downgrades across the credit spectrum. Despite the surge in fallen angels (BBB to junk status), BBB is still growing…
![8.21 Understandably, the Covid shutdowns are causing bond-1](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/8.21%20Understandably,%20the%20Covid%20shutdowns%20are%20causing%20bond-1.png?width=694&name=8.21%20Understandably,%20the%20Covid%20shutdowns%20are%20causing%20bond-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
7. Duration has also been increasing. Extremely low rates, increased credit and duration risk, and investors are still pouring money into bonds. What could possibly go wrong?
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20Duration%20has%20also%20been%20increasing-png-2.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
8. If yields follow the ISM (old PMI), then bonds are in for a serious correction. Yet the Fed, with trillions of buying capability, has stated they want rates at these levels through 2022. Who will win?
![8.21 If yields follow the ISM (old PMI)-1](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/8.21%20If%20yields%20follow%20the%20ISM%20(old%20PMI)-1.png?width=683&name=8.21%20If%20yields%20follow%20the%20ISM%20(old%20PMI)-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
9. Is one round of stimulus all we are going to get?
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20Is%20one%20round%20of%20stimulus%20all%20we%20are%20going%20to%20get-png-1.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20
10. Apple has gone parabolic. Historically, parabola up, parabola down. We shall see…
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/8-21%20Apple%20has%20gone%20parabolic-png.png)
Source: The Daily Shot, from 8/20/20