FIRESIDE CHARTS
Holiday Travel, Santa Claus Rally, Government Efficiency
The holiday season is in full swing, and Americans are on the move. Thanksgiving set a record for TSA traveler throughput. A “Santa Claus” rally is also well underway, sending prices for risk assets…
The Election, Interest Rates, Nuclear Energy
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House in 2025. While the outcome was more widely anticipated than in 2016, it still sent waves through financial markets. Stocks hit new all-time highs as interest rates and the dollar rose. The jump in…
Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin
Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains…
Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure
U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit…
Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…
Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…
China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth
The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…
Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty
Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…
Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies
The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but…
Data Revisions, Gold, to the Moon
The Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market as continued economic strength comes into question. Recent revisions have shown that job growth over the past year was not as…