FIRESIDE CHARTS
A Modern-Day Bank Run, a Tale of Two Economies, Federal Reserve Credibility
Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are…
Economic Data Remains Strong, Inflation Is in Focus, Stock Buybacks Resume
Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target…
Jobs Report Shattered Expectations, Optimism Is Rising, Oil Supply Is Improving
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…
BCM 4Q22 Market Commentary—Entering the Year Cautiously Contrarian: Considerations of Key Market Levers and Emerging Opportunities
What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…
What’s Going On With Consumers, When Will Bonds Behave Like Bonds, Don’t Bet Against Innovation
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…
Tax Loss Selling: Don’t Conflate Short-term Price Moves with Fundamentals
Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…
A New Year for Consumers, Restrictive Financial Conditions, the End of an Era
Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices…
The Federal Reserve Remains Hawkish, Inflation Is Slowing, China’s Shifting Covid Policies
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment…
The U.S. Economy Has a Dearth of Workers, Services Spending Remains Strong, the Holidays Are Fast Approaching
The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress…
COVID Restrictions Remain Widespread in China, Earnings Revisions Aren’t Hitting All Sectors Equally, Black Friday Recap
Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks…