FIRESIDE CHARTS
BCM 2Q22 Market Commentary: Capturing Opportunities in an Otherwise Painful Market Environment
The first half of 2022 has been one of the most difficult investment environments in the past 40 years due to the simultaneous decline of bonds with stocks, and an unprecedented mix of external shocks…
Fixed Income Fails to Mitigate Downside Risk, Sentiment and Unemployment Decouple, and Rate Hikes Are Priced In
As the second quarter comes to an end, it’s been an incredible difficult year especially for investors with traditionally conservative allocations. Low unemployment has historically corresponded to strong…
Nowhere to Hide
2022 has been a difficult and frustrating year for many asset managers, ourselves included. The S&P 500 recently entered a bear market, falling 20% from its most recent peak. While this is far from uncharted…
Leading Indicators Turn Negative, Declining Inflation Expectations, and a 12-Week Dow Record
Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently…
The 2-Year and Fed Funds Rate, Small Businesses’ Pessimism and Hiring Plans and Investor Sentiment as an Indicator
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC…
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal…
Inflation as a Recession Indicator, Increased Consumer Spending, and Semiconductor Imports Above Recent Highs
China’s economy is beginning to re-open. While this is a positive development for the global economy, it may lead to increased oil demand at a time when supply is already tight. Historically, periods of high…
Market Predicts Inflation Slowdown, Wage Growth Means Increased Tax Receipts, and Consumer Demand Stays Strong
Nasdaq 100 breadth has fallen to levels only seen near the bottom of recent drawdowns. Inflation remains front and center, but market-based measures have fallen over the past month. Falling inflation…
Inflation’s Relationship with Equities, Bearish Investors, Beaten Down Sector Present Opportunity
Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…
Has the Market Been as Choppy this Year as it Feels?
It has been feeling all year as if the market is on a teeter totter. One day euphoria, the next day fear. I analyzed daily S&P 500® Index returns to see if there had been more pairs of big up and down index…