FIRESIDE CHARTS
Home Sales Still Soaring, Raised Earning Guidance Buoys Markets, and Supply Chain Problems Continue to Affect Commodities
Home sales hit a multi-year high in June but are still below expectations as inventories remain extremely low for this time of year. Will the Case-Shiller Home Price Index exceed 25% and will…
NBER Marks Recession at 2 Months, Hiring Struggles Continue, and Covid Factor Might Affect 10-Year Yield Recovery
The National Bureau of Economic Research’s decision to set the COVID recession at two months was surprising since more than a year and half later, “normalization” is ongoing. And although longer…
Transitory Inflation Called into Question, Bond Market Could Be Harbinger, and China’s Debt Bubble
More inflation data continues to roll in both here and abroad, and there is no sign yet of it backing off despite Fed Chairman Powell’s claims. Looking at the debt situation (which includes CPI…
Powell’s Words Calm Markets, Manufacturing Surveys are Mixed, and Covid Cases are on the Rise Across the Globe
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke before a House panel yesterday where he noted the increase in inflation but remains confident that it will back off as the economy returns to normal. It seems his…
Inflation Mirroring History, Fed May be Forced to Act, and Equities Stand Strong…For Now
The CPI is now well above the pre-Covid trend, leading the Boomer generation to draw parallels to the 1970’s. Yet, barring extreme competition or a collapse, the Fed continues its transitory thinking…
Rising Rent, S&P 500 Well Above Long Term Trend, and Delta Variant Momentum
The median rent has climbed in the first half of 2021, putting a strain on lower-income households as the federal eviction moratorium is set to expire. Now with concerns about the nation’s rental…
Record One-Month Climb in Consumer Credit, U.S. Labor Shortage Continues, and Does Slower Growth Lie Ahead?
Consumer credit set a record in May for the largest one-month increase, though the major decline in debt last year— spurred largely by stimulus payments—means it remains well-below its pre-Covid…
Approaching Normalization, JP Morgan Looks Ahead at Equity Returns, and Energy Extends the Commodities Rally
The U.S. economy continues its pursuit of “normal” as both the manufacturing and services PMIs ease off their post-pandemic surges into more typical growth territory. Could this signal an easing in…
Wage Growth, Soaring Liquid Assets, and Employment Trends in States that Ended Additional Benefits Early
10 more states put an end to the $300 pandemic-era unemployment enhancement at the end of June, and it’s having an effect on both job search activity and continuous claim volume. As overall…
The Household Wealth Boom, New Market Highs, and Evolutions in the Yield Curve
Aided by stimulus payments, QE, and last year’s booming stock market, household wealth has ballooned in the U.S., accelerating an already notable trend and pocketing households an additional $13.5…