Wage Growth, Soaring Liquid Assets, and Employment Trends in States that Ended Additional Benefits Early

10 more states put an end to the $300 pandemic-era unemployment enhancement at the end of June, and it’s having an effect on both job search activity and continuous claim volume. As overall unemployment trends lower in the United States, wage growth has maintained its (long-awaited) upward momentum. It’ll certainly have an effect on the household wealth boom we mentioned in Monday’s post, as well as still-ballooning consumer liquid assets. What will it take to spark a normalization? Perhaps an investment in money-losing companies, which have recently flooded the market with secondary share offerings in search of capital… Finally, as we head into a holiday weekend, we ask that you all stay safe in the midst of rising new case counts and the emerging threat from the Delta variant!

A quick note before we get to the charts: there will be no new posts Friday or Monday in observance of Independence Day. We’ll be back with more charts on Wednesday 7/7. 

1. Some proof of the law of unintended consequences?

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/30/21

2. Some “harder” proof. If the government paid you more not to work versus going back to work, what would you do?

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/30/21

3. The good news is that after ~two decades of negative growth, the low end of the pay scale is climbing to meet demand. Will this wage cycle become inflationary or just transitory? 

Source: Mizuho Securities, from 6/29/21

4. PMIs are healthy (readings above 50) in most economies:

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/30/21

5. A different look at the incredible wealth amassed by consumers during the pandemic, thanks largely to government stimulus and reduced spending. Rarely does an event like this go uncorrected. When and how will this normalize?

Source: Cornerstone Macro, from 6/30/21

6. Pouring good money after bad? Passive indices invest in the entire index. What’s in your portfolio? Do you want this exposure?

Source: Bloomberg, from 6/29/21

7. Facebook’s value could nearly cover the proposed infrastructure plan:

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/29/21

8. The ECB has also been active with its own QE bond purchases. Who will buy their bonds, many still with negative yields, when QE ends?

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/29/21

9. Proof that vaccines can stop the pandemic, but Covid will persist without herd immunity. Please get vaccinated, our country’s health depends on it!

Source: The Daily Shot, from 6/30/21

10. Yes, we are exhausted by Covid. Yet the new variants are out there and spreading. Please get vaccinated before another wave shuts us down again!

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21

Source: JHU CSSE, as of 6/29/21