FIRESIDE CHARTS
Recession is now Consensus, Housing Inventory Rising, and the Return of Yield
A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to…
Market Signaling a Curb in Inflation Fears, Tech Companies are “Right Sizing”, The Supply/Demand “Bullwhip”
The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the…
Fixed Income Fails to Mitigate Downside Risk, Sentiment and Unemployment Decouple, and Rate Hikes Are Priced In
As the second quarter comes to an end, it’s been an incredible difficult year especially for investors with traditionally conservative allocations. Low unemployment has historically corresponded to strong…
Leading Indicators Turn Negative, Declining Inflation Expectations, and a 12-Week Dow Record
Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently…
The 2-Year and Fed Funds Rate, Small Businesses’ Pessimism and Hiring Plans and Investor Sentiment as an Indicator
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC…
Inflation as a Recession Indicator, Increased Consumer Spending, and Semiconductor Imports Above Recent Highs
China’s economy is beginning to re-open. While this is a positive development for the global economy, it may lead to increased oil demand at a time when supply is already tight. Historically, periods of high…
Market Predicts Inflation Slowdown, Wage Growth Means Increased Tax Receipts, and Consumer Demand Stays Strong
Nasdaq 100 breadth has fallen to levels only seen near the bottom of recent drawdowns. Inflation remains front and center, but market-based measures have fallen over the past month. Falling inflation…
Inflation’s Relationship with Equities, Bearish Investors, Beaten Down Sector Present Opportunity
Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…
Giving Back Post Covid Gains, CPI Expectations, and the Relationship Between Manufacturing and Interest Rates
Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…
A Rare Phenomenon in Stocks and Bonds, Mortgage Rates Still Rising, China’s Lockdown is Taking Its Toll
The widely awaited FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting has come and gone. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) and announced plans to reducing the Federal Reserve’s…