FIRESIDE CHARTS
A Rare Phenomenon in Stocks and Bonds, Mortgage Rates Still Rising, China’s Lockdown is Taking Its Toll
The widely awaited FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting has come and gone. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) and announced plans to reducing the Federal Reserve’s…
Investor and Consumer Sentiment Decline, Homebuyers Priced Out, and USD Benefits from Current Environment
Small option traders, the favored vehicle of many “meme” investors, are becoming less bullish as investor sentiment continues to worsen. Consumer sentiment continues to fall as well, despite confidence in…
The Draw of Higher Interest Rates, China’s Lockdowns and Effects on Supply Chain, Pandemic Era Fiscal Policy’s Impact on GDP
Investor sentiment is reaching dire levels. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield is in positive territory for the first time since 2019, as higher interest rates bolster the…
Yield Curve Inversion, Market’s Expectations of Federal Funds Rate, and Inflation’s Effect on Discretionary Spending
The long end of the yield curve just inverted for the first time since 2006. The flattening yield curve reflects the market’s expectations of future Federal Reserve tightening and its impact on the economy…
Bond Markets React to FOMC, Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Surge, Emerging Market Index Has Changed
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are telegraphing an increasingly hawkish approach to monetary policy in the near future, and the bond markets have reacted accordingly. Mortgage rates have risen…
Uncertainty Leads to Hiring Stalls, Data Suggests Late Cycle Slowdown, and the Yield Curve Inverts
Meme stocks are back. The labor market remains strong, but fewer firms are planning to hire in the future. Where are we in the business cycle? The data points to a late cycle slowdown, which has historically…
Material Rate Increases Across the Yield Curve, Threat to Housing Market and Energy Prices
As the Federal Reserve plans to raise short-term interest rates, the market is already a few steps ahead. Inflation expectations are moving higher and interest rates across the yield curve have already…
China Attempts to Calm Markets, Small- and Mid-cap Equities’ Relative Attractiveness, Update on the Fed’s Latest Rate Projections
The Chinese government is attempting to calm markets after steep price declines. Employees may be returning to the office, but companies aren’t leasing new office space just yet. Performance of small- and…
Higher Mortgage Rates Reducing “Stimulus”, Effects of Rising Gas Prices on Consumers, War’s Impact on the Wheat Market
Rising house prices and falling or low interest rates act as a form of “stimulus” to homeowners as they refinance their mortgages. So far, higher debt levels haven’t caused any financial stress for households…
Stocks Taking a Hit, Omicron Impacting Inflation, and Will Tensions Overseas Effect Markets?
January 2022 has certainly started with a bang. While volatility is normal in markets, we want to explore some of the “whys”. Global PMIs retreat as Omicron does its thing. How many Americans are out…