TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
The Election, Interest Rates, Nuclear Energy
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House in 2025. While the outcome was more widely anticipated than in 2016, it still sent waves through financial markets. Stocks hit new all-time highs as interest rates and the dollar rose. The jump in…
Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin
Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains…
Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure
U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit…
Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…
Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…
3Q24 Commentary: As the Fed Provides a Clearer Fiscal Policy Roadmap, Our Models Signal for Less Risk
Q3 2024 saw a broad rally driven by small-cap, value stocks, and international markets as central banks cut rates. Looking ahead, caution is shifting focus to selective opportunities in sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials.
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth
The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…
Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty
Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator…