TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
AI tools like ChatGPT have wowed us, but are they truly revolutionary like the automobile or television? Learn why current AI models face data and architectural limits, what this means for businesses, and why AI isn’t ready to take over the world—yet.
Holiday Travel, Santa Claus Rally, Government Efficiency
The holiday season is in full swing, and Americans are on the move. Thanksgiving set a record for TSA traveler throughput. A “Santa Claus” rally is also well underway, sending prices for risk assets…
The Election, Interest Rates, Nuclear Energy
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House in 2025. While the outcome was more widely anticipated than in 2016, it still sent waves through financial markets. Stocks hit new all-time highs as interest rates and the dollar rose. The jump in…
Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin
Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains…
Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure
U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit…
Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…
Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…
3Q24 Commentary: As the Fed Provides a Clearer Fiscal Policy Roadmap, Our Models Signal for Less Risk
Q3 2024 saw a broad rally driven by small-cap, value stocks, and international markets as central banks cut rates. Looking ahead, caution is shifting focus to selective opportunities in sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials.
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth
The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…