TIMELY MARKET UPDATES

Holiday Travel, Santa Claus Rally, Government Efficiency

Holiday Travel, Santa Claus Rally, Government Efficiency

The holiday season is in full swing, and Americans are on the move. Thanksgiving set a record for TSA traveler throughput. A “Santa Claus” rally is also well underway, sending prices for risk assets…

The Election, Interest Rates, Nuclear Energy

The Election, Interest Rates, Nuclear Energy

Donald Trump is heading back to the White House in 2025. While the outcome was more widely anticipated than in 2016, it still sent waves through financial markets. Stocks hit new all-time highs as interest rates and the dollar rose. The jump in…

Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin

Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin

Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains…

Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure

Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure

U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit…

Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors

Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors

The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…

Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels

Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels

The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…

China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth

China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth

The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…