TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
BCM 4Q22 Market Commentary—Entering the Year Cautiously Contrarian: Considerations of Key Market Levers and Emerging Opportunities
What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…
What’s Going On With Consumers, When Will Bonds Behave Like Bonds, Don’t Bet Against Innovation
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…
Tax Loss Selling: Don’t Conflate Short-term Price Moves with Fundamentals
Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…
A New Year for Consumers, Restrictive Financial Conditions, the End of an Era
Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices…
The Federal Reserve Remains Hawkish, Inflation Is Slowing, China’s Shifting Covid Policies
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment…
The U.S. Economy Has a Dearth of Workers, Services Spending Remains Strong, the Holidays Are Fast Approaching
The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress…
COVID Restrictions Remain Widespread in China, Earnings Revisions Aren’t Hitting All Sectors Equally, Black Friday Recap
Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks…
The Upcoming Holiday Season Will Test Consumers, Retailers Are Reluctant to Raise Prices, Dividends Are in Demand
The economy is still growing, but it seems clear that it’s no longer overheating. Consumers are continuing to spend into the holiday season. Views on the labor market are souring. Retail pricing power…
Powell Put a Damper on Markets, Inflation Remains in Focus, Investing for the Long-Term
The economy can handle higher rates, but not a Federal Reserve asleep at the wheel. Powell denied any imminent pivot and spooked the markets with hawkish rhetoric surrounding further rate hikes…
GDP Is Growing Again, Rents Are Falling, Investors Are Eschewing Stock in Favor of Bonds
U.S. GDP is growing again, but the story is a little more complicated below the surface. Preliminary data is showing a decline in U.S. rents during October. The Federal Reserve has now overseen the…