TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
AI Mania, Emergency Lending, Leading Economic Indicators
AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone…
Insights from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking
The Federal Reserve Board recently published the results of their “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking” from October 2022. Periodically released by the Federal Reserve Board, this report…
Commodities Falling, Economic Surprises, Debt Ceiling Expectations
The price of oil is near its 52-week low, but this hasn’t translated to lower prices at the pump for consumers. Oil isn’t the only commodity showing weakness as investors being to sour on the asset…
Debt Ceiling Redux: What Lessons Can Market Participants Learn From 2011?
In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…
Unemployment Falls, Inflation Slows, the End of Interest Rate Hikes
The economy isn’t growing as fast as it once was but it’s too early to call this a slowdown. Hard economic data is still very positive, and inflation continues to trend in the right direction…
Economic Data is Murky, Housing Supply, Uses for Artificial Intelligence
Inconsistent economic data is making it difficult to judge the state of the economy. Many previously negative indicators are turning around, while others are showing new signs of weakness. Interest rates have…
BCM 1Q23 Market Commentary: Rapid Rate Hikes and their Role in the Banking Crisis
We remain in a somewhat uncharted investment environment with new crises occurring almost quarterly. These have been catalyzed in some part by the Federal Reserve’s obsession with inflation and their urgent…
Earnings Season Begins, Falling Inflation, Labor Force Recovery
Equity markets are rallying into earnings season, despite unusually high uncertainty surrounding earnings estimates. Recent banking issues have put a spotlight on commercial real estate. Inflation data…
Bank Casualties: A Result of the Steepest Rate Hikes in Modern History
In the wake of the March 10th demise of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been thrust into the center of the latest economic crises. More specifically, banks with a large number of uninsured deposits (those over…
Fed Tightening Always Breaks Something, Importance of Credit Availability, China Reopening
The Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy always break something but once something breaks it usually marks the end of the tightening cycle. Issues within the banking sector are likely to lead to…