TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty
Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator…
How to Allocate Based on Possible Fed Decision
How can you position your portfolios in preparation for the possible outcomes of the upcoming Fed Decision? There seems to be consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) will pursue one of three leading options…
Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies
The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but…
Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia…
Data Revisions, Gold, to the Moon
The Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market as continued economic strength comes into question. Recent revisions have shown that job growth over the past year was not as…
Volmageddon, Rebounding Markets, AI Investment
Volmageddon isn’t what it used to be. Perhaps increased interest in the index has made the VIX an example of Goodhart’s Law—when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Equities…
Bank of Japan, the Sahm Rule, Earnings Season
On Sunday night the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly raised interest rates, adding fuel to the fire in already skittish equity markets. Investors were on edge after the prior week’s payroll report…
Growth to Value: From One Extreme to Another
After a decade of tech dominance, we’re seeing a major rotation in the market. Large-cap growth stocks, led by giants like Microsoft, have recently been overshadowed as money flows into small-cap value stocks. Over just two weeks following the…
The Struggling Seven, Market Rotation, the Olympics
After a remarkable stretch of outperformance, the magnificent seven are finally taking a break. Recent selling pressure has been concentrated in the largest stocks, dragging the broad indices lower…