TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
Slowing of COVID-19, Alphabet Soup of Recovery Predictions, Balance Sheet as Percent of GDP
Happy Friday! As we wrap up the week we take a look at some positive news on the COVID-19 front. New cases in most European countries, in addition to China and South Korea, are trending down with one notable exception…will Europe’s poster child for “Do Nothing” regret that decision?
Top Concerns Among Equity Investors, Mortgage Delinquencies and Record-Setting Economic Data
Stocks fell into the close today on bleak statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning in an online speech. He described the future as “highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks,” urging the White House and Congress to provide more stimulus.
Equities Rise As Unemployment Hits New Highs… What’s Driving the Rally?
The U.S. unemployment rate clocked in at a disastrous 14.7% on Friday, hitting its highest point since the Depression. If that wasn’t bad enough, the report shows that the U.S. lost more than twice as many jobs as we did during the Great Recession… in approximately 1/12 of the time.
Unemployment, Unbothered Equities, and the Uncertain Path Forward
It’s jobs report day and we hate to break it to you, but the situation is… grim. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Employment Situation Summary this morning and highlights include 20.5 million jobs lost in April, the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression (14.7%), and a “real” unemployment rate (which includes the underemployed and workers not actively seeking jobs) of 22.8%.
Bond ETF’s Price Divergence From NAV: How Do We Tell Which Was “Right”?
“What happened to fixed income ETFs in the March sell-off?” So far, we’ve kept quiet on the subject. Not due to a lack of opinions, but because we felt we didn’t have much to add to the discussion. Our many fund sponsor and trading partners (SSGA, iShares, Invesco, and Jane Street to name a few) have done a fantastic job of providing detailed analyses on the subject.
Grim Forecasts, the Equity Rally, and Reignited Tensions with China
Halfway into an earnings season for the history books and analysts—much like the rest of the world—are still struggling to reach a consensus on what the future holds. The dispersion of estimates for S&P 500® Index companies has spiked to levels not seen since the financial crisis as our “new normal” has meant massive losses for some and gains for others.
Rent’s Due, the ‘Shale Death Zone’, and a Warning Signal from the Bond Market
If this month’s rent or mortgage payment hurt a little more than usual, you aren’t alone. Small businesses are struggling to keep up with expenses following the first full month since “social distancing” entered the lexicon. Only 5% of businesses surveyed made their rent payments in full and the projections of the economic impact of such a change are already in the billions of dollars.
The GDP Hit, Unemployment, and a Look Ahead
U.S. GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in Q1, posting its first quarterly drop in over half a decade and it’s worst quarterly drop since the financial crisis. Consumer spending, the main (re: ~70%) contributor to GDP, was the primary culprit after suffering its worst nosedive since 1980, and plunging business investment was the runner up.
Forward P/E Ratio and EPS Projections, Equity Return Trends, and the Food Supply Chain
It’s a big day for the markets with Q1 GDP data, an FOMC meeting, and earnings reports from industry leaders Microsoft and Facebook. Amid a 4.8% contraction in GDP—the sharpest since the financial crisis—the S&P 500® Index forward P/E ratio shows that stocks remain expensive.
Earnings, A Paycheck Protection Program Check In, and Emerging Consumer & Market Patterns
Ready for a pulse check on one of the most unique earnings seasons on record? In the S&P 500® Index, the Utilities, Healthcare and Information Technology sectors are leading the pack in terms of out-performance, while Energy’s bringing up the rear with only 20% of companies coming in above expectations.