TIMELY MARKET UPDATES
BCM 1Q20 Market Commentary: To V or Not to V, That Is the Question…
The Covid-19 pandemic has set upon the globe with lightning speed and is unlikely to leave us anytime soon. First and foremost, we hope that you, your family and loved ones are well. While the level of disruption that the virus has caused to our daily lives is unprecedented, we wish to offer hope with a healthy dose of realism.
The Changing Employment Landscape, Debt Downgrades, and Slashed Dividends
The U.S. lost about 700,000 jobs in March—7x the expected figure and a grim way to cap off the first quarter. Still, given the staggering number of unemployment claims continuing to roll in, this may be just the beginning; the unemployment rate is expected to hit a multi-decade high over the next few months.
Unprecedented Unemployment, Reshaped Industries, and a Look Ahead at EPS
An unprecedented wave of unemployment is crossing the U.S. and small businesses are being hit particularly hard. Plummeting retail and restaurant activity have driven the industries to a grinding halt; both have seen a nearly 100% year-over-year drop in traffic unfold in less than a month. How will such a dramatic (and swift) change reshape our economy going forward?
Mutual Funds in Taxable Accounts: Despite Losses, You May Incur Sizable Capital Gains Tax
As investors and advisors alike look to realign/re-balance their portfolios this year, we wanted to provide a reminder about how mutual funds are taxed. Like any investment, if you buy a mutual fund, own it for more than one year, and sell it at a profit, you must pay federal (and for most states) capital gains tax on your gain.
Evaluating the Rebound, 1929 Comparisons, and a Look at Manufacturing
And that’s a wrap on Q1. As we close out a quarter for the history books, let’s hope there are better days ahead in Q2. The recent equity rebound may have convinced some optimists out there, but with confirmed cases of Covid-19 continuing to climb and the White House warning us to brace for a “very painful two weeks,” we fear any celebration may be premature.
Mounting Corporate Debt, Effects of New QE Measures, and a Currency Check In
U.S. businesses are scrambling for liquidity in an increasingly arid market. Corporate loan balances have surged by the highest percentage on record and investment-grade bond issuance has also spiked—but could so much additional debt send us careening toward another credit crisis?
Historic Unemployment, Corporate Borrowing Surges, Chinese Economic Output Normalizes
Unemployment spiked at an unprecedented rate (and to historic levels) this week as layoffs and shutdowns pick up steam across the country. Corporations are borrowing heavily to ride out the crisis, with new loan totals reaching $200 billion in just the past few weeks. But could carrying so much additional debt spell trouble for the future?
Plummeting Employment, Stimulus Packages, and China’s Budding Recovery
There’s been a lot of talk about recession lately, and the sharp drop in global staffing will certainly factor into the equation. Given the speed with which this has all unfolded though, could the recovery be just as speedy? The Fed’s doing its best to ensure just that and released a sweeping plan to prop up the economy that includes unlimited asset purchases (re: QE) and various additional liquidity provisions.
A Word of Caution on Fixed Income in the Current Market Environment
Investors of balanced strategic portfolios as well as effective tactical portfolios are now well aware of the benefits of reduced risk during times of market duress. While volatile markets may encourage investors to seek the historical “safe havens” of fixed income and lower risk investments, an unfortunately timed rebalance or re-allocation towards fixed income can be particularly risky in today’s environment.
Resistance Levels, the Calming Bond Markets, and Struggling Small Businesses
As stocks come off their worst week since 2008, Washington’s failure to produce a stimulus package and the spread of increasingly strict containment measures are putting increasing pressure on global markets. The S&P 500® Index broke through downside support and is now down over 30% from it’s all time high on February 19th.