Consumers are perking up as we begin the new year. Sentiment is beginning to turn on the future economic outlook, and consumers are feeling positive about their financial health. Economic momentum from the fourth quarter appears to be carrying over into the first quarter, and leading economic indicators are on the precipice of turning positive. The oil market is facing a potential surplus in 2024. It’s been a difficult start to the year for meme investors. China’s woes continue. The Bitcoin ETF launch went off without a hitch, but was it a success?
1. Current conditions continue to improve but there was a notable jump in future expectations during the December survey:
2. Consumers are notably positive on their credit, income, and savings outlook:
3. Stronger than expected spending boosted the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth:
4. If the Leading Economic Indicators turn positive, it will close out the longest period of continuous negative readings without a recession:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/23/2024
5. The current oil market dynamics should keep a lid on prices:
6. It’s going to be difficult for OPEC to cut additional supply:
7. The speculative companies that caught a bid in the fourth quarter have sold off sharply to start the year but there’s been little selling pressure in the larger, higher quality companies:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/18/2024
8. China’s population declined in 2023, for the second year in a row, and China’s birthrate per 1000 people was half that of the U.S.:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/23/2024
9. While net inflows are still positive, it appears that most of the assets added to new Bitcoin ETFs have come from other existing investment vehicles:
10. Only a quarter of investors have a positive view on the price of Bitcoin in 2024: