The State of Unemployment, Surging Mortgage Delinquencies, and Tech’s Election Optimism
November 6, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Today’s jobs report showed a promising drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%—down a full percentage point from September—but initial benefits claims continue to roll in at a rate of over 1 million per week. As additional fiscal stimulus has remained a point of contention in the senate, the mortgage delinquency rate has passed 8% to approach heights last seen during the Great Recession. And while America waits for a verdict on the election, tech stocks and the Nasdaq have gotten a boost from the fading likelihood of a single party congressional majority—could equities at large follow the same pattern?
1. Many U.S. businesses that have held on through the Covid crisis are having new lay-offs or closing altogether. Over 1 million Americans are losing their jobs every week…
Source: Oxford Economics/ Haver Analytics, from 11/6/20
2. Covid has caused tens of millions to become unemployed. As the original stimulus packages ends, how many millions of Americans are going to lose their homes or apartments? Will this turn into humanitarian crisis?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/6/20
3. While we await final results, it looks like the House, Senate and White House may not be controlled by one party, which historically has been great for stocks…
Source: LPL Research, from 11/5/20
4. Will a bipartisan government have the stomach for intense anti-trust action against big tech? Early market reaction says “no”…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/5/20
5. The late October rotation from Tech to other sectors has been sharply reversed this week…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/6/20
6. Are the yields of junk bonds the modern-day sirens? Buying companies with a questionable ability to repay bondholders in the midst of pandemic is fraught with risk…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/5/20
7. There is little relief for real (inflation-adjusted) yields overseas…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/5/20
8. China’s currency continues to appreciate making their goods & services more expensive and ours less so. Yet the trade deficit with China is still at record highs…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/6/20
9. The second wave of Covid is already affecting Europe’s service sector…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/5/20
10. The third wave of Covid is showing its effects here as well…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/5/20
11. There were over 100,000 new Covid cases in the U.S. yesterday and almost 700,000 globally. Will new lockdowns affect the markets?
Source: JHU CSSE, as of 11/5/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.