Payrolls Disappoint, a Possible Change in Leadership, Is the Market Topping?
February 8, 2021 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
After a disappointing payrolls report and a significant downward revision to previous figures, the labor market recovery looks to have stalled—even the robust manufacturing sector lost jobs last month. Credit card balances remain suppressed as Americans continue to curb spending and favor saving in response to the pandemic, though an abundance of available credit and pent-up demand could lay the groundwork for a robust recovery when conditions improve. And as many indices again hit new highs Friday—despite many stocks taking a hit on earnings days—we’re wondering if the market is topping or preparing to move higher. Either way, we could be witnessing a change in leadership as small and mid-caps continue to outperform. Finally, after the Fed’s balance sheet soared to nearly $7 trillion, the yield curve looks to be normalizing. What will it take to keep it that way?
1. The second Covid spike tempered employment gains and the revisions totaled a loss of 159,000 jobs.
Source: The Daily Shot, from 2/8/21
2. In the aggregate, consumer credit card balances have declined 10.8%. For those with jobs, credit expansion can provide robust consumer spending ahead…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 2/8/21
3. And our balance of trade is at all-time lows…
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
4. Albeit with some chop and struggle, most markets reached new highs on Friday. They seem to be almost asking for a rest…
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
5. Is the market topping or transcending?
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
6. Buy the rumor, sell the news…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 2/8/21
7. Has market leadership changed?
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
8. The furious commodity rally also looks to be needing a rest…
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
9. Lest anyone thinks the stimulus is “free”, the Fed now holds almost $7 trillion in bonds…
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
10. The yield curve has normalized to the point where investors will earn more reward for extending duration from 3 months to 30 years…
Source: The Chart Store, from 2/8/21
11. Wow.
Source: The Daily Shot, from 2/8/21
12. We try to avoid controversy, but congrats to the Bucs and the Super-G.O.A.T!
Source: Sports Illustrated, from 2/7/21
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.