A Historical View of Job Recovery, Pandemic-Era Spending Trends, and Checking in on Commodities
September 9, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
While we saw some good news on payrolls heading into Labor Day weekend, the U.S. still has a long way to go to hit a full recovery. Over the last 60 years, post-recession job recovery has taken 30 months on average… and the 2020 job losses were anything but average. Curbed credit card spending has been one popular response to tightening purse strings, while over in the business sector leading trends include reducing office space and taking on loans to stay afloat. We’ll be keeping an eye on the consequences for banks, the real estate sector, and earnings. Checking in on commodities, oil prices just suffered their worst day since May as travel remains minimal and the Saudis issue a price cut, but industrial metals are getting a boost from strong demand in China. The demand is perhaps not surprising, given China’s climbing exports and global market share…
1. Friday’s payroll report was slightly better than expected but the trend and overall recovery is far from erasing the ~30 million unemployed…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/8/20
2. Here is a historical recap of past job recoveries…
Source: LPL Research, from 9/8/20
3. As Covid re-writes our business habits and plans, will commercial REITs and Real Estate in general suffer disproportionately?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/9/20
4. Credit card balances have plummeted; great news for consumers, bad news for banks…
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, from 9/9/20
5. A lot of short-term problems have been salved by record debt issuance. Will paying these loans off cause an earnings headwind in the future?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/9/20
6. Is the “smart money” selling?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/8/20
7. This year’s swoon was the fastest bear market and the fastest recovery to a new high…ever…
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research, from 9/9/20
8. Retail traders are growing bolder. Could it spell trouble ahead?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/9/20
9. Many have concerns over the elections and the results. While every situation is unique, here is the historical pattern:
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/9/20
10. We note that as interest rates began to creep higher, so too did the Fed’s balance sheet as bond purchases were renewed…
Source: TheChartStore.com, from 9/8/20
11. Like many bond asset classes, EM bond yields have been bid down to ultra-low levels.
Source: Ice data indices, LLC, from 9/9/20
12. Has the US dollar’s ~11% decline run its course or are we set to hit some longer-term lows (~88 or 78)?
Source: TheChartStore.com, from 9/8/20
13. After a furious rally from the abyss in May, crude oil looks to have lost its momentum…
Source: TheChartStore.com, from 9/8/20
14. Hang on to your Starbucks card!
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/8/20
15. China’s economic activity is driving industrial metal purchases and prices…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/8/20
16. Are the current U.S. trade policies having the unintended consequence of allowing China to accelerate their global market share?
Source: Bloomberg, from 9/8/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.