CLO Market Continues to Climb, and U.S. Sees Modest Manufacturing Recovery Despite Global Slowdown
October 25, 2019 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Earnings news remains mixed as we head into the weekend, with S&P profits dropping only ~1.2% so far—significantly less than the projected 4%+—and economic behemoth Amazon suffering a ~7% after-hours loss after posting its first quarterly profit decline in over two years. Investors remain hungry for returns though (and apparently willing to gamble on riskier assets), which could explain why the risky CLO market has more than doubled in the past decade to top $660 billion. Could this spell trouble? A modest domestic manufacturing recovery and decline in first-time unemployment applications are positive signs, but we’ll be keeping an eye on the major LEIs—especially given the state of global manufacturing, where reports from Germany, the Eurozone, Japan, and Mexico paint a less-rosy economic picture.
1. Did we learn nothing from 2007-09?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/24/19
2. Good news for anyone on a recession watch…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/25/19
3. Unlike most of the other Regional Fed surveys from last month, the KC Fed did not enjoy a rebound…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/25/19
4. Nationally, we have a modest recovery.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/25/19
5. But there is no way to sugar-coat this…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/24/19
6. …nor this.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/24/19
7. …nor this…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/24/19
8. …nor this…
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/25/19
9. Is EM finally going to break out of its down-trend?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/24/19
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