The U.S. economy continues to stand out relative to its developed world peers, despite sending many mixed messages. Consumers are still spending but, in addition to higher credit card debt, they are turning to other suboptimal financing sources. Job openings across different sectors of the economy have diverged wildly. Residential construction spending is rising while more people are listing their homes for sale. Monetary policy remains restrictive, but manufacturing growth is picking up. Crude Oil. Preferred Stocks. Indian equities. S&P 500 performance around Tax Day.
1. Economists are revising their estimates of U.S. GDP growth higher while GDP growth in the Eurozone is expected to continue to slow:
2. Inflation adjusted air travel spending has risen further above its pre-pandemic trend:
3. The share of 401(k) participants taking economic hardship withdrawals is rising. Strong equity market returns may be contributing to this trend:
4. Construction and retail job openings tell two vastly different stories about the state of the economy:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/3/2024
Source: The Daily Shot 4/3/2024
5. Non-residential construction spending growth is taking a pause after two years of strong growth:
6. More inventories should put downward pressure on house prices:
7. Interestingly, the economy continued to flourish in the late 90’s despite a more restrictive policy stance from the Federal Reserve:
8. The Manufacturing PMI measured a growth reading, over 50, for the first time since 2022:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/2/2024
9. Oil prices have risen sharply over the past month:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/3/2024
10. Preferred stocks, which are generally issues by financial companies, have been hurt by higher rates and banking sector distress:
11. Indian equities are marching to the beat of their own drum:
12. Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen prior to Tax Day and rebounded shortly after:
Source: The Daily Shot 4/2/2024