Hedge Funds Revisit 2008, Commodity Prices Climb, and is the Recovery Losing Momentum?
September 21, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Momentum looks to be slowing for the economic recovery, though leading indicators still see growth on the horizon. While the housing market doesn’t look to be mirroring the days of the Great Recession, hedge funds are revisiting a trend from the era and currently hold the largest net-short position in Nasdaq 100 futures since 2008—could it be a sign of trouble ahead for the recently battered index? And as commodity prices climb—with many possible indications—we’re again seeing how plummeting yields are forcing bond investors to take on more risk for less return.
1. Is the recovery stalling out?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
2. The number of American houses with negative equity is about 1/10th of the Great Recession peak…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
3. An interesting tilt…will outbreaks in the more industrial states (GDP weighted) have a greater economic impact? .
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
4. A seemingly lost topic. If America works as hard and prospers as much as we did in the 1950’s we’ll be fine…
Source: TheChartStore .com, from 9/21/20
5. Is this what has gotten into the market? Hedge funds collectively hold the largest amount of NASDAQ 100 shorts since 2008…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
6. Are the rise in commodity prices signaling recovery, inflation ahead, both, or neither?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
7. Are the European Bourses more realistic or more pessimistic?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
8. Chinese households are hoarding cash; they’ve saved ~$1.25 trillion YTD.
Source: The Daily Shot, from 9/21/20
9. Covid still has the U.S. in its grasp with about 40,000 new cases/day. Today marks a few grizzly milestones including over 200,000 American deaths due to Covid-19.
Source: JHU CSSE, from 9/21/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.