Recovery Momentum Slows, Small Businesses Face Permanent Closures, and Equities Extend November’s Historic Rally
December 2, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
The recovery appears to be slowing as we move into winter and daily Covid deaths in the U.S. hit their highest level since May. Manufacturing growth is losing momentum, the slow return to the office has reversed course, and a staggering number of small businesses face closing their doors for good. We’re reminded again though that the stock market is not the economy as the S&P 500® Index kicks off December with another record close and nearly 93% of index members above their 200 day moving averages, extending November’s historic rally. Could last month’s historic growth be fueling some overconfidence though? Meanwhile, treasury yields spiked yesterday on hopes of a bipartisan relief package, but what does the future hold for fixed income after 2020’s record bond issuance?
1. The regional Fed surveys are still solidly in growth mode but tend to show moderation as Covid’s grip tightened again…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/1/20
2. Tepid PMIs, Fed surveys and employment all point to a renewed slowdown due to the pandemic’s second wave. So far, it is nothing like March’s shutdowns…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/2/20
3. While politicians in Washington squabble over differences, there is the real risk of permanent economic damage to the part of the economy that employs the most Americans….
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/2/20
4. It was a November to remember…
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, from 12/1/20
5. How extreme has 2020 been?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/2/20
6. Time to reflect? Almost everyone expects a raging bull… is this a classic snapshot of “the herd mentality”? Or is it more like lemmings?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/1/20
7. Record multi-decade issuance, all at historically low rates. When central banks ease off the QE, what will happen to bond prices?
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, from 12/2/20
8. A short-term double bottom or will the trend continue down to the 2018 low?
Source: BCA Research, from 12/2/20
9. China’s manufacturing sector is on a tear…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/30/20
10. Their stock market concurs…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/30/20
11. Some good news: it looks like the second Covid wave in Europe is in decline. Note the second wave was a much as four times larger than the first wave in March…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 11/30/20
12. $7.25 x 40 hrs. week x 52 weeks= $15,080 of annual income. Some of this may be taxable. Could you live off of $15,080/year? How about raising a family?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 12/2/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.