Recession Signals, Construction Demand, Inflation Progress
June 22, 2023 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Signs of labor market weakness, which have historically signaled a recession, are beginning to appear. The construction sector, which was hit hard in recent recessions, seems set up for strong demand this time around. Inflation continues to decelerate, but progress hasn’t come fast enough for the Federal Reserve. Speculative activity is returning to the markets. European equities are trading at a discount. U.S. oil production is rising. Employee satisfaction.
1. Continuing unemployment claims rising from their lowest level in over 50 years may signal a recession or simply indicate a return to normal from the tight labor market:
2. The housing market has remained remarkably strong, and many homebuilders are now positioning themselves for growth:
Source: Wells Fargo Securities
3. We’re beginning to see the effects of recent infrastructure bills:
Source: @SteveRattner
4. Recent “supercore” inflation, which excludes Rent/OER, is approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target:
Source: Nomura Securities
5. Despite recent progress on inflation, the Federal Reserve expects to hike rates two more times this year which is at odds with market expectations:
6. We had hoped that the bear market would snuff out speculation:
Source: @JessicaMenton, @lena_popina, @markets Read full article
7. It’s normal for European equities to trade at a discount but the current discount is the largest its been in over ten years:
Source: Goldman Sachs
8. If U.S. oil production continues to rise it will be difficult for OPEC to keep a floor on prices:
Source: The Daily Shot 6/15/2023
9. Low unemployment gives workers the opportunity to find the job they want:
Source: @chartrdaily
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.