U.S. Retail Blows Past Estimates, the Trade Deficit Soars, and Negative-Yielding Debt Returns
October 19, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
American consumers have returned to the retail space with far greater swiftness than expected—September sales growth came in at more than double the Dow Jones consensus estimates—but they may not necessarily be “buying American.” The U.S. trailing 12-month trade deficit has soared to ~$3.12 trillion, enough to put even 2008 to shame. And though we’ve seen some recent signs of strength from the manufacturing sector, the recovery looks to be plateauing. That’s not the case for negative-yielding debt though, which has returned with a vengeance. Is the fixed income space poised for more struggles?
1. In cases anyone still cares or is counting, the U.S. trailing 12-month deficit is now twice what it was after the great recession in both absolute and % terms…
Source: The Chart Store, from 10/19/20
2. Consumers have done their part…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/19/20
3. Yet manufacturing has stalled…
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, from 10/19/20
4. The U.S. farmer is getting some price relief, but much of it comes from poor weather and limited harvests…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/19/20
5. Remember all the negative yielding debt from around the globe in early 2019?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/19/20
6. China is back on track…but their numbers, from Covid cases to economic data, seem a bit to “perfect”…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/19/20
7. Eyeballing the 7-day trends, 45 of the 50 states show Covid infections rising. Here is the U.S. as a whole:
Source: JHC CCE, from 10/19/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.