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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: S&P 500 Remains Little-Changed Since Spring, Buying Climate Index Hits Record High, and China Yields Look Poised to Turn Negative

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Oct21, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Earnings season continues as about a quarter of S&P 500 companies will report Q3 financials this week; we'll keep it light on charts today as we wait on pins and needles. S&P readings haven't broken out (one way or the other) more than ~300 points since early spring—could any surprise readings this week push the index outside of that established range? And while September's disappointing retail figures had us questioning consumer confidence last week, the Bloomberg Weekly Buying Climate Index just hit a record high. Was last month's slump a false alarm? Even if it was, a record number of Americans are now working multiple jobs. Is sustaining consumer spending and confidence coming at the sake of family and leisure time? Finally, according to Bloomberg, soaring pork prices in China are to thank for their 10-year real yield approaching zero for the first time in seven years and threatening to expand the global total of negative-yielding debt.

1. If it feels like the S&P has just been grinding sideways for six months...


S&P 500 Bollinger Bands

Source: the Chart Store, as of 10/18/19



2. We mentioned in Friday's blog that September retail sales fell short of expectations and dropped for the first time since February, but Bloomberg's Weekly Buying Climate Index just reached a record high.


U.S. buying climate

Source: Bloomberg Markets, as of 10/17/19



3. But are we paying for consumer confidence with reduced family time? A record number of Americans are now working multiple jobs. 


u.s. workers with multiple jobs

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, as of 10/21/19



4. Low rates are catching up to China too...


China 10-year real yield

Source: Bloomberg Markets, as of 10/20/19



5. Going green can bring in some green!


U.S. electricity generation jobs

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/9/19



BCM is hitting the road this week and next to join AssetMark at their Investment Mastery Events. Follow us on LinkedIn to see if we're coming to a city near you and stay up-to-date on our movements, current talking points, and general market analysis!


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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.