How Many (and How Long) Ships are Waiting to Enter Port, Spiking Inflation is a Global Phenomenon, and the Chinese Real Estate Sector
December 9, 2021 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
As markets shrug off the Fed’s hawkish tone and the new Omicron variant, consistent themes continue to emerge: Inflation is accelerating across the globe, not waning. The data speaks for itself. Markets appear to be in the beginning of the “blow-off stage” which is consistent with the Santa Claus rally. 1Q22 could be dicey! Port backlogs are getting worse, not better, which will keep goods inflation elevated. Finally, with Evergrande (and at least several other developers) ready to default and possibly enter bankruptcy, the Chinese real estate sector is in shambles. Real Estate accounts for almost a third of the Chinese economy!
1. More signs of a bubbly market? What is so interesting is how the markets can defy gravity…for a while…
Source: Alpine Macro, 12/7/21
2. To wit, will history continue rhyme?
Source: Alpine Macro, 12/7/21
3. “Transitory” remains undefined! While some elements of inflation (such as goods in short supply) should eventually see relief, other components (such as wages) likely will not:
Source: Oxford Economics; TheDailyShot from 12/8/21
4. Some reports show the container ships logjam easing. However, it depends on how you classify them:
Source: American Shipper; TheDailyShot from 12/8/21
5. Waiting three weeks to enter port is costly and seems to be trending longer, not shorter:
Source: TheDailyShot from 12/9/21
6. U.S. job openings remain near peak levels as the bottlenecked industries try to catch up:
Source: @nick_bunker; TheDailyShot from 12/9/21
7. Led by energy and power prices, inflation is accelerating in Europe:
Source: TheDailyShot from 12/7/21
8. And the emerging world:
Source: TheDailyShot from 12/7/21
9. …And the rest of the developed world:
Source: TheDailyShot from 12/7/21
10. Almost a third of China’s economy has been driven by the real estate sector. With their real estate developers in shambles, will a real estate collapse have a greater effect than most economists think? Remember 2007/08?
TheDailyShot from 12/9/21
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.