A ‘Checkmark’ Recovery, SMID Caps Post Solid Gains, and Is the Bond Market Wrung Out?
October 5, 2020 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
Jobs are still coming back, but at a slower pace. Approximately half of the jobs lost since the onset of the pandemic have been recovered, and—while not exactly forming a full V (we see more of a checkmark)—are returning at a significantly faster pace than in past periods of significant losses. State and local governments have seen massive losses to tax revenue in 2020 in a development that could spell trouble for muni-bond investors. And while 10-year UST yields may look strong from a certain angle, the trend likely isn’t sustainable. Do you have an alternative in place?
1. Is the jobs recovery stalling?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
2. It’s certainly not a “v” shape…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
3. Yet if we extend the scale to compare to past recoveries, we get a “V”… but also see we have a long way to go…
Source: Economic and Strategy Group, National Bank of Canada, from 10/5/20
4. SMID had a good week but have a lot of work to do to catch the big boys…
Source: The Chart Store, from 10/5/20
5. Is China finally buying U.S. food stock?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
6. Here is the issue! This trend cannot continue going forward as the rates have been “all” wrung out… Time to adjust?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
7. Will the muni bond space see more defaults or just credit downgrades?
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
8. The pandemic has hit South America particularly hard and it is showing in their stock market returns…
Source: The Daily Shot, from 10/5/20
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.