Recent economic data has surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So far, markets are looking through the near-term weakness as companies’ profit expectation have improved. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly dipped in April. Homeowners are starting to dip into home equity. Falling rig count. Surging Copper. Public debt in the two giants. Roaring Kitty is back.
1. Either markets aren’t buying the economic weakness, or this reflects expectations for sticky inflation:
2. Higher gas prices may have negatively impacted consumer spending elsewhere:
3. After nearly pricing out rate cuts in 2024, the market now expects two rate cuts:
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/5.17-rate-cuts.png)
Source: The Daily Shot 5/16/2024
4. S&P 500 companies are guiding towards robust earnings growth in the latter half of 2024:
5. Announced stock buybacks remain near record levels:
6. The survey is transitioning from random phone sampling to address based web sampling between April and July which may distort the results:
7. Is the slight rise in HELOCS and CES loans a sign of distress or are homeowners embarking on renovations after having given up on lower mortgage rates:
8. U.S. producers are maintaining their discipline on capex:
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/5.17-rig-count.png)
Source: The Daily Shot 5/14/2024
9. The price of front-month copper hit a new all-time high:
![](https://blog.investbcm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/5.17-copper.png)
Source: The Daily Shot 5/15/2024
10. Combining both federal and local government debt provides a more accurate picture of China’s total public debt load:
11. Keith Gill, AKA “Roaring Kitty,” returned to Twitter for the first time in three years to post multiple ambiguous memes and videos. His followers naturally reacted by bidding up GameStop, AMC, and a host of other meme stocks: