The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations. January’s non-farm payrolls report smashed expectations and December’s report was revised higher. Productivity growth in the fourth quarter was higher than expected. The manufacturing sector appears to be on the upswing. The U.S. still needs to build more housing. India is replacing China as the preeminent emerging market growth story. Regional banks. Market cycles and breadth.
1. Perception of the job market improved over the past two months, perhaps this was a leading indicator for the strong non-farm payrolls report:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/31/2024
2. Increased productivity is the key to sustaining high growth without inflationary pressures:
Source: The Daily Shot 2/2/2024
3. The “great reshuffling” of employees appears to be at an end:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/31/2024
4. New manufacturing orders expanded for the first time since 2022:
5. New orders and inventories tend to lead the manufacturing PMI:
6. Single family population-adjusted housing production has yet to return to its pre-2006 historical average:
7. Year-over-year permits growth looks strong across most of the country:
8. The government’s recent stimulus measures, explicitly aimed at boosting stock prices, have been unsuccessful so far:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/31/2024
9. The HSBC India Composite PMI, a combination of goods and services PMIs, has reaccelerated recently:
Source: The Daily Shot 1/30/2024
10. Analysts are also raising their estimates for 2024 GDP growth:
Source: The Daily Shot 2/1/2024
11. New York Community Bancorp, which acquired most of the assets of Signature Bank after it failed last year, is now facing its own problems:
Source: The Daily Shot 2/1/2024
12. Current market breadth is narrower than at the peak of the technology bubble in 2000: