U.S. Services and Manufacturing Near Pre-Covid Levels, How Inflation Affects Tech, and Omicron Impact on Yield Curve
December 21, 2021 | FIRESIDE CHARTS
While Covid caused an economic plummet and a subsequent surge, U.S. Services and manufacturing have largely returned to pre-covid levels. How does tech get affected by inflation? Speaking of inflation, what does the long-term trend look like from the “old-fashioned” inflation fighter? A look at what Omicron has done to the yield curve and more updates on regional Covid metrics. Commodities for Christmas, or bah-humbug?
Please stay safe this Holiday season! We will be taking a break from the blog for the holidays and will resume in January.
1. While the NY Fed surprised to the upside, the Philly Fed had the opposite to report:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/16/21
2. U.S. manufacturing appears to have peaked and is falling back towards pre-pandemic levels:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/16/21
3. Meanwhile, our service economy is already there:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/16/21
4. Perhaps this explains some of what is affecting tech these days:
Source: Denise Chisholm, Fidelity Investments
5. Inflationary pressures have steepened the yield curve in the short end but market turmoil lowered rates from 5 years out:
Source: Thechartstore.com from 12/17/21
6. Commodity prices are all over the place with Omicron’s havoc. Risk-off appetite seems to be winning:
Source: Thechartstore.com from 12/17/21
7. Gold, often maligned, is now competing with cryto as well. Yet we note that so far, the pattern of the 1970’s is repeating quite closely. Will it continue with the inflationary surge?
Source: @CRutherglen
8. The Chinese think so:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/21/21
9. Slowing growth, major real estate woes, and geo-political issues have Beijing concerned about their economy. Bucking the global trend, they cut their prime interest rate:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/20/21
10. South Africa, the country which first found Omicron, is in crisis. However, while it is still early, deaths have yet to spike like the earlier outbreaks:
11. Yet in countries such as Vietnam and South Korea (below), which largely avoided the previous surges, deaths are also surging:
12. The other cost of Covid:
Source: The Daily Shot from 12/17/21
13. Yet another sign of toppy markets? This dwarfs 1999:
Source: Alpine Macro
Disclosure: The charts and infographics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are they a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.