Happy Monday Fireside Charts readers! Today may be a holiday, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be a leisurely week in the markets as earnings season kicks off tomorrow! Banks are up first and we’ll be keeping an eye on how they performed in this historically low interest rate environment. Producer price inflation appears weak in the U.S.—despite a strong showing from the construction sphere—as PPI for final demand goods has dropped nearly a full percentage point since July, and a 0.2% drop in PPI for final demand services has nearly erased its surprise August gain. It’s not all bad news however, as the LEIs Index appears to be maintaining positive momentum and isn’t yet mirroring behavior seen in previous recessions. Could this be a sign that Fed intervention is having its desired effect? Easing operations have totaled $180.2 billion in just four weeks, and an announcement came Friday that they will continue at least through the start of 2020. Could that be a talking point at this week’s annual gathering of the IMF in D.C.?
1. As the construction industry heats up, the rest of the economy continues to cool off…
![U.S. PPI September](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10.14%20chart%208.png?width=715&name=10.14%20chart%208.png)
Source: The Chart Store, as of 10/11/19
2. Yet another seemingly telling indicator?
![Consumer Sentiment spread](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10.14%20chart%207-1.png?width=600&name=10.14%20chart%207-1.png)
Source: Variant Perception, as of 10/14/19
3. For every negative there is a positive…here the U.S. LEIs are shown still in positive territory…
![U.S. LEI Index](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10.14%20chart%206-1.png?width=582&name=10.14%20chart%206-1.png)
Source: Merk Investments, as of 9/30/19
4. High yield (junk) bonds are still signaling an “all-clear”…
![junk bond treasury spread](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10.14%20chart%2010.png?width=694&name=10.14%20chart%2010.png)
Source: The Chart Store, as of 10/11/19
5. Is the Fed launching an unofficial QE program?
![fed total assets](https://blog.investbcm.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10.14%20chart%209-1.png?width=698&name=10.14%20chart%209-1.png)
Source: The Chart Store, as of 10/11/19
6. Indeed they are…
![federal reserve october comments](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/10.14%20chart%203-1.png)
Source: The Federal Reserve, as of 10/11/19
7. A darn good question!
![corporate earnings and trade](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/10.14%20chart%202-1.png)
Source: Oxford Economics, as of 10/14/19
8. Would you pay the Government of Greece to hold your money, even for three months?
![greece 3-month negative yield](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/10.14%20chart%205-1.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/14/19
9. “Another one bites the dust”…
![industrial production india](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/10.14%20chart%204-1.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/14/19
10. Worth a smile…
![ipo pricing](https://blog.investbcm.com/hubfs/10.14%20chart%201-1.png)
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 10/14/19