FIRESIDE CHARTS
Fresh Highs from Equities, The Steepening Yield Curve and its Implications, and Interpreting Inflation Signals
U.S. equities climbed modestly higher on Friday to mark a fresh set of record closes, though a closer look at sector performance hints at some important nuance. And as the yield curve steepens and…
Retail Sales Jump 5.3%, U.S. PPI Posts Largest Gain Since 2009, and Conflicting Signals from Gold and Copper
Though the economic situation in the U.S. is improving overall, unemployment remains a major concern; jobless claims just hit their highest level in four weeks and initial benefits claims are inching…
Inflation Anticipation, Breaking Down Climbing Treasury Yields, and Gold’s “Death Cross”
Inflation expectations are climbing in the U.S., aided by the current deep freeze in Texas which is straining energy infrastructure and pushing oil prices higher. But inflation indicators aren’t just…
Inflation Gauges and Wages, a Look at Bulls and Bubbles, and a Refresher on Bond Risks
Given the level of stimulus pumped into the system over the last year, there is much anticipation around inflation. Levels have remained relatively subdued overall apart from certain sectors….
~$57 Billion in Back Rent, the “Mother of All Bubbles”, and Checking In On the SPAC Boom
The Oxford Economics U.S. Recovery Tracker shows some marginal improvement in the past few weeks as vaccination has launched in earnest, though unemployment remains elevated and a significant…
Payrolls Disappoint, a Possible Change in Leadership, Is the Market Topping?
After a disappointing payrolls report and a significant downward revision to previous figures, the labor market recovery looks to have stalled—even the robust manufacturing sector lost jobs last month…
A Bifurcated Recovery, More Evidence of Approaching Inflation, and Revisiting Millennium-Era Trends
The service sector recovery looks to be gaining some traction and outperformed expectations, though significant bifurcation remains as “the Covid factor” continues to exert its influence…
U.S. Manufacturing PMI Hits Decade High, Home Price Appreciation Skyrockets, and the Potential Impact on Inflation
The U.S. Manufacturing PMI has hit a 10-year high in another sign of strength from the sector, though it does look as if it’s also experiencing some margin pressures as prices paid outpace prices…
Services Spending Continues to Lag, Inside the Retail Investing Upheaval, and a Look at Bond Market ‘Normalization’
Consumer spending held up well in December, dipping slightly month-over-month but still coming in above expectations. Spending on services however, is still lagging and has yet to recover…
Accommodating the Fed’s Accommodative Policy, Aftermath of the GameStop Saga, and Biden’s Tax Proposal
The latest “advance” estimate on 4Q2020 U.S. GDP is reporting 4.0% and this will now serve as an inflation gauge for the Fed. Speaking of the Fed, while they maintain an accommodative policy and…