FIRESIDE CHARTS
Services Spending Continues to Lag, Inside the Retail Investing Upheaval, and a Look at Bond Market ‘Normalization’
Consumer spending held up well in December, dipping slightly month-over-month but still coming in above expectations. Spending on services however, is still lagging and has yet to recover…
Accommodating the Fed’s Accommodative Policy, Aftermath of the GameStop Saga, and Biden’s Tax Proposal
The latest “advance” estimate on 4Q2020 U.S. GDP is reporting 4.0% and this will now serve as an inflation gauge for the Fed. Speaking of the Fed, while they maintain an accommodative policy and…
Unprecedented Inflows to Inflation-Friendly Assets, Brewing Bubbles, and Bracing for a Correction
Investors look to be bracing for increased inflation and are pivoting toward inflation-friendly assets in unprecedented droves. Is it a sign of approaching growth or an omen of potential runaway prices…
Service Sector Growth, Potential Inflation Triggers, and Has the 10-Year UST Hit Bottom?
The January Markit flash PMI report offered two pleasant surprises last week with manufacturing growth coming in above expectations and even the battered services sector surprising to the upside…
Stimulus, Continued Strength from Manufacturing, and Breaking Down Recent Equity Gains
Stimulus remains a major talking point this week as the Biden administration settles in on Pennsylvania Ave and unemployment numbers continue to raise concerns. Manufacturing continues to show signs…
Federal Debt Soars, CAPE Ratio Projects Negative Earnings, and Signals from High Yield
Federal debt saw a $4.5 billion+ year-over-year climb in 2020 and now sits at over 130% of U.S. GDP. More stimulus funding is a central talking point in Washington as the Biden administration takes…
Housing Boom Continues, Momentum Factor Composition, and the Break Between Commodities & Services CPI
The pandemic housing boom has continued into 2021 as mortgage applications start the year on a strong note. And the composition of the momentum factor—one of the only factors to outperform…
A Check in with the Early WFH Winners, Climbing Equity Valuations, and a Surprise from Small Caps
Technology’s been one of the big winners of the work-from-home economy, but the market cap of negative-earning IT firms is approaching staggering heights… And large caps were another winner during…
Payrolls Slump, Equities Hit New Highs, and a Quick Consult with ‘Dr. Copper’
Nonfarm payrolls reversed course in December, posting losses for the first time since May. The report did, however, include upward revisions for October and November, and the December losses were…
Service Sector Surprises to the Upside, Growing Inflation Expectations, and Could Small Caps Finally Be Poised to Climb?
The ISM Services PMI offered a pleasant surprise this week as the U.S. service sector continues to expand at a promising pace. Inflation expectations are climbing as officials continue their…