Economic activity has slowed amid the recent Covid surge. After much ado, Congress passed a new $900 stimulus package this week—though its future is uncertain after a tweet from…

Small and mid-cap stocks reached new highs last week on the back of progress towards both a stimulus deal and approval of the Moderna vaccine. With both hopes realized, will it be enough to sustain…

The housing market is still booming and contractors are racing to meet demand, bringing single family housing starts to their highest level since 2007. Manufacturing has softened across…

While U.S. industrial production exceeded expectations in November and is still inching closer to full recovery, momentum has slowed as Covid’s second wave takes hold. Vaccines arrived in the U.S. this week though…

Consumer prices climbed last month, but Friday’s report shows CPI and PCE inflation levels remaining tepid and lingering below the Fed’s 2% target. With government debt and the deficit at record highs…

Vaccine distribution in the U.S. is inching closer, and it can’t come soon enough. The recovery has stalled, unemployment is climbing once again, and national debt has surged to unprecedented heights…

Stimulus negotiations continue in Washington as a growing percentage of small and mid-size businesses view additional funding as “critical” to their survival. Companies are working hard to…

The U.S. added 245,000 jobs in November—less than half of October’s 630,000+ gains—in a disappointing payroll report Friday. Is the U.S.—and the battered services sector in particular—poised for further struggle heading into winter as virus cases soar and new restrictions roll in? Equity investors remain undeterred though, as many indices closed out last week by hitting fresh highs and speculative activity continues to surge, fueled largely by retail investors. Aided by the dollar’s decline, commodities have continued to climb—“Dr. Copper” just broke out above a 9-year trend line—and virus concerns have yet to spark a renewed demand for gold. Western nations are set to start administering the first doses of the Covid-19 vaccine this week, but could the resultant market optimism be getting a little ahead of itself?

Equities are flashing yet another reminder of the dotcom era. As indices hover around record highs, the S&P® Index CAPE Ratio—or Shiller P/E—has reached territory only seen three times in history. Are we due for a pullback? Meanwhile, risk is climbing in the high yield market; defaults are expected to peak next quarter and some longer-term forecasts have them climbing above Great Recession levels. Copper meanwhile has climbed to a seven-year high as the sinking USD pushes commodity prices higher. Will those climbing prices, in combination with long-awaited Covid vaccine distribution, be enough to spark inflation?

The recovery appears to be slowing as we move into winter and daily Covid deaths in the U.S. hit their highest level since May. Manufacturing growth is losing momentum, the slow return to the office has reversed course, and a staggering number of small businesses face closing their doors for good. We’re reminded again though that the stock market is not the economy as the S&P 500® Index kicks off December with another record close and nearly 93% of index members above their 200 day moving averages, extending November’s historic rally. Could last month’s historic growth be fueling some overconfidence though? Meanwhile, treasury yields spiked yesterday on hopes of a bipartisan relief package, but what does the future hold for fixed income after 2020’s record bond issuance?