FIRESIDE CHARTS
Manufacturing Recovery Continues, Bracing for Trend Reversals, and Bankruptcies Approach 2009 Territory
Manufacturing is kicking off 2021 on a positive note—coming in well-above pre-pandemic levels both domestically and in several international markets. Meanwhile, we’re left wondering when trends in…
Record Highs to Close Out 2020, SMID Caps Make Up Ground, and Commodities Break Above a 9-Year Trendline
Welcome to 2021! Santa Claus delivered a rally that brought the S&P 500® Index and the Dow to new record highs to close out a wild year. Though large caps—particularly those in the information…
A New Stimulus Package, Investors Hedge Against Inflation, and Has Another ‘90s Trend Returned?
Economic activity has slowed amid the recent Covid surge. After much ado, Congress passed a new $900 stimulus package this week—though its future is uncertain after a tweet from…
SMID Caps Climb, a Look at Risk and Reward in Fixed Income Markets, and Commodities Move Higher
Small and mid-cap stocks reached new highs last week on the back of progress towards both a stimulus deal and approval of the Moderna vaccine. With both hopes realized, will it be enough to sustain…
The Housing Boom Continues, Historic Patterns from Equities, and Why ‘Investment-Grade’ Doesn’t Mean What It Used To…
The housing market is still booming and contractors are racing to meet demand, bringing single family housing starts to their highest level since 2007. Manufacturing has softened across…
A Moderating Recovery, Investor Euphoria, and a Growing Risk for Fixed Income Investors
While U.S. industrial production exceeded expectations in November and is still inching closer to full recovery, momentum has slowed as Covid’s second wave takes hold. Vaccines arrived in the U.S. this week though…
An Inflated Money Supply, Climbing Treasury Yields, and a Potential Tailwind for the USD
Consumer prices climbed last month, but Friday’s report shows CPI and PCE inflation levels remaining tepid and lingering below the Fed’s 2% target. With government debt and the deficit at record highs…
An Expensive 2020: Fiscal Stimulus, Quantitative Easing, and Global Market Price Tags Continue to Climb
Vaccine distribution in the U.S. is inching closer, and it can’t come soon enough. The recovery has stalled, unemployment is climbing once again, and national debt has surged to unprecedented heights…
The Long Wait for Stimulus, Shoring Up Balance Sheets, and an Expanding Equity Market
Stimulus negotiations continue in Washington as a growing percentage of small and mid-size businesses view additional funding as “critical” to their survival. Companies are working hard to…
A Disappointing Jobs Report, Speculation Surges, and Dr. Copper Prescribes Optimism. Is it Justified?
The U.S. added 245,000 jobs in November—less than half of October’s 630,000+ gains—in a disappointing payroll report Friday. Is the U.S.—and the battered services sector in particular—poised for further struggle heading into winter as virus cases soar and new restrictions roll in? Equity investors remain undeterred though, as many indices closed out last week by hitting fresh highs and speculative activity continues to surge, fueled largely by retail investors. Aided by the dollar’s decline, commodities have continued to climb—“Dr. Copper” just broke out above a 9-year trend line—and virus concerns have yet to spark a renewed demand for gold. Western nations are set to start administering the first doses of the Covid-19 vaccine this week, but could the resultant market optimism be getting a little ahead of itself?