Covid-19 has had a profound effect on all of our lives and seems set to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. We firmly believe that we will prevail over the virus, but it will take more time than any of us want, and the costs in all facets of life have been—and will continue to be—enormous.

The Covid-19 pandemic has set upon the globe with lightning speed and is unlikely to leave us anytime soon. First and foremost, we hope that you, your family and loved ones are well. While the level of disruption that the virus has caused to our daily lives is unprecedented, we wish to offer hope with a healthy dose of realism.

The emergence of COVID-19 and its rapid spread have sparked an exceptional market meltdown and a fundamental restructuring of our daily lives. In this uncertain time, we wanted to provide you with a special video update from BCM’s Portfolio Manager and Managing Partner on the coronavirus and current market conditions.

Last week, we shared some facts about the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (BBAB). Outside of the BBAB, there are a few more items that you may want to know about in the corporate bond landscape that may also surprise you and your clients.

With the sudden drop in the global equity markets, we thought it might be helpful to remind everyone about where we have been, where we are now, and share some helpful source information.
Before we discuss the virus, let’s go back and remind everyone that U.S. large cap stocks, after demonstrating a decade of leadership, may have gotten ahead of themselves from a valuation standpoint.

The third quarter of 2019 was full of noise and lacking substance. There was a terrorist attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which affected the price of oil for about two weeks, and now oil is right back where it started. The U.S. dollar continued to grind higher and has now appreciated ~12.6% since its 2/16/2018 low. Manufacturing and trade continued to wane as the trade war drags on.

Which index has realized the highest 1-year return through June 30th, 2019?

I have spent the last five weeks travelling around the country visiting advisors and clients, and speaking at events. At each meeting, I ask my audience if they are aware that the S&P 500® Index is about to undergo the largest reconfiguration in its history. So far, the resounding answer has been “no” so we thought it was important proactively help educate about this significant change with another memo From the Desk of the PM!

In 2018, the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (BBAB) eked out a whopping 0.01% return and thus preserved a rather remarkable streak of only having one negative year since 1999. What’s new in the evolving construct of the BBAB index, and do you know the risks that are creeping into the bond markets?

It looks like some of the issues we have been concerned about, namely rising interest rates and the trade war, have finally caught up to us. In addition, there have been some high profile missed earnings, bombs being mailed to prominent figures, BREXIT, and Italy’s budget crisis. Discourse at home and abroad is not helping. The result has been that October has been difficult to endure.