As Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s testimony on the economic recovery continues today, we see that momentum is slowing—though the manufacturing sector is still showing signs of strength. Equities have also eased off the gas and appear to have hit a long-term resistance level—will it hold? Finally, though we might typically expect to see small caps outperform during this phase of the economic cycle, anemic earnings and historic leverage during the coronavirus era have contributed to ongoing weakness. Will the trend continue into 2021?

Momentum looks to be slowing for the economic recovery, though leading indicators still see growth on the horizon. While the housing market doesn’t look to be mirroring the days of the Great Recession, Hedge funds are revisiting a trend from the era and currently hold the largest net-short position in Nasdaq 100 futures since 2008—could it be a sign of trouble ahead for the recently battered index? And as commodity prices climb—with many possible indications—we’re again seeing how plummeting yields are forcing bond investors to take on more risk for less return.

After climbing slightly through August, new unemployment claims ticked down last week. We’re far from out of the woods though as permanent business closures continue across the country. And as the Fed now intends to keep rates at historic lows through at least 2023, it may be time to move beyond traditional allocation methods like the 60/40 portfolio. Do you have an alternative in place?

Though manufacturing activity remains strong in New York, national growth fell below expectations last month as momentum slows in the face of natural disasters and the ongoing battle against the coronavirus. And while the big have certainly gotten bigger in the S&P 500® Index, do the new follow the same pattern? Finally, after a historic wave of asset purchases that effectively stabilized yields, the Fed is easing off the gas pedal. Will Chairman Powell reveal any significant new insights when he speaks this afternoon?

Consumer prices rose for the third straight month in August, bringing year-over-year CPI growth to 1.3%. Renters and homeowners alike are under growing pressure as cash grows tight and the looming threat of evictions and foreclosures grows stronger. And China’s market share climbs to capture over 40% of the emerging market equity index.

After establishing a fairly stable downward trend since April, initial claims for unemployment benefits are again on the rise. If they haven’t already, homeowners may want to grab a drink—while suppliers are still well stocked—and take advantage of the 30-year mortgage rate, which just slid to a record low of 2.86%. Finally, as the mega-caps push the speed of market movement to new heights and gold approaches a breakout point, equities are sending more and more reminders of the millennium era.

While we saw some good news on payrolls heading into Labor Day weekend, the U.S. still has a long way to go to hit a full recovery. Over the last 60 years, post-recession job recovery has taken 30 months on average… and the 2020 job losses were anything but average. Curbed credit card spending has been one popular response to tightening purse strings, while over in the business sector leading trends include reducing office space and taking on loans to stay afloat. We’ll be keeping an eye on the consequences for banks, the real estate sector, and earnings. Checking in on commodities, oil prices just suffered their worst day since May as travel remains minimal and the Saudis issue a price cut, but industrial metals are getting a boost from strong demand in China. The demand is perhaps not surprising, given China’s climbing exports and global market share…

The U.S. unemployment rate fell below 10% for the first tine since March last month, but a politicized process—and a week-over-week rise in new claims—is undercutting confidence in the recovery. Equities had their own crisis of confidence yesterday with Big Tech leading the major U.S. indices to their sharpest losses in months—is it just a natural (and healthy) pullback or a sign of trouble ahead? And global manufacturing has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but is it sustainable when second waves of infection are taking hold and many economists are bracing for a “double-dip” recession?

The U.S. goods trade deficit surged 11.7% to $79.3 billion in July—the second largest deficit on record—as imports climb back to pre-pandemic levels on recovering consumer demand. Meanwhile, as U.S. equities move to wrap up their best August since the 1980’s today, thanks largely to the tech mega-caps, stocks remain extremely expensive in yet another reminder of 1999. And as the bond market continues to inch back toward “normal,” the sinking USD is giving a boost to commodity prices. Could it ultimately benefit U.S. exports too?

The U.S. goods trade deficit surged 11.7% to $79.3 billion in July—the second largest deficit on record—as imports climb back to pre-pandemic levels on recovering consumer demand. Meanwhile, as U.S. equities move to wrap up their best August since the 1980’s today, thanks largely to the tech mega-caps, stocks remain extremely expensive in yet another reminder of 1999. And as the bond market continues to inch back toward “normal,” the sinking USD is giving a boost to commodity prices. Could it ultimately benefit U.S. exports too?