FIRESIDE CHARTS
Economic Data Rebounds, Supply Chains, Student Loans
Happy 4th of July! Equity investors are bullish going into the holiday weekend, as recent economic data has been unambiguously positive. On the other hand, the current period of low equity market…
Recession Signals, Construction Demand, Inflation Progress
Signs of labor market weakness, which have historically signaled a recession, are beginning to appear. The construction sector, which was hit hard in recent recessions, seems set up for strong demand…
Will Restarting Student Loan Repayments Dampen Consumer Spending?
On June 3rd, President Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 into law suspending the debt ceiling until 2025 and averting a potential U.S. default. One provision of the law will require student loan…
AI Mania, Emergency Lending, Leading Economic Indicators
AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone…
Insights from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking
The Federal Reserve Board recently published the results of their “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking” from October 2022. Periodically released by the Federal Reserve Board, this report…
Commodities Falling, Economic Surprises, Debt Ceiling Expectations
The price of oil is near its 52-week low, but this hasn’t translated to lower prices at the pump for consumers. Oil isn’t the only commodity showing weakness as investors being to sour on the asset…
Debt Ceiling Redux: What Lessons Can Market Participants Learn From 2011?
In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…
Unemployment Falls, Inflation Slows, the End of Interest Rate Hikes
The economy isn’t growing as fast as it once was but it’s too early to call this a slowdown. Hard economic data is still very positive, and inflation continues to trend in the right direction…
Economic Data is Murky, Housing Supply, Uses for Artificial Intelligence
Inconsistent economic data is making it difficult to judge the state of the economy. Many previously negative indicators are turning around, while others are showing new signs of weakness. Interest rates have…
BCM 1Q23 Market Commentary: Rapid Rate Hikes and their Role in the Banking Crisis
We remain in a somewhat uncharted investment environment with new crises occurring almost quarterly. These have been catalyzed in some part by the Federal Reserve’s obsession with inflation and their urgent…