FIRESIDE CHARTS
Interest Rates, Profit Margins, New Home Prices
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, bringing the upper bound of their target rate range to 5.50%. This is widely expected to be the final rate hike, but in his press conference Chair Powell…
BCM 2Q23 Market Commentary: Will economic fundamentals support the new wave of optimism?
The prospect of an AI-fueled investment cycle as well as strong May jobs numbers propelled the market higher in Q2. Although we believe that many companies have already re-calibrated for a changing economic…
Economic Optimism, Mortgage Rates, U.S. Dollar
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in June, bolstering optimism that inflation is behind us. Despite the positive inflation data, the market believes the Federal Reserve is locked…
Economic Data Rebounds, Supply Chains, Student Loans
Happy 4th of July! Equity investors are bullish going into the holiday weekend, as recent economic data has been unambiguously positive. On the other hand, the current period of low equity market…
Recession Signals, Construction Demand, Inflation Progress
Signs of labor market weakness, which have historically signaled a recession, are beginning to appear. The construction sector, which was hit hard in recent recessions, seems set up for strong demand…
Will Restarting Student Loan Repayments Dampen Consumer Spending?
On June 3rd, President Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 into law suspending the debt ceiling until 2025 and averting a potential U.S. default. One provision of the law will require student loan…
AI Mania, Emergency Lending, Leading Economic Indicators
AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone…
Insights from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking
The Federal Reserve Board recently published the results of their “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking” from October 2022. Periodically released by the Federal Reserve Board, this report…
Commodities Falling, Economic Surprises, Debt Ceiling Expectations
The price of oil is near its 52-week low, but this hasn’t translated to lower prices at the pump for consumers. Oil isn’t the only commodity showing weakness as investors being to sour on the asset…
Debt Ceiling Redux: What Lessons Can Market Participants Learn From 2011?
In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…