FIRESIDE CHARTS
Unemployment Falls, Inflation Slows, the End of Interest Rate Hikes
The economy isn’t growing as fast as it once was but it’s too early to call this a slowdown. Hard economic data is still very positive, and inflation continues to trend in the right direction…
Economic Data is Murky, Housing Supply, Uses for Artificial Intelligence
Inconsistent economic data is making it difficult to judge the state of the economy. Many previously negative indicators are turning around, while others are showing new signs of weakness. Interest rates have…
BCM 1Q23 Market Commentary: Rapid Rate Hikes and their Role in the Banking Crisis
We remain in a somewhat uncharted investment environment with new crises occurring almost quarterly. These have been catalyzed in some part by the Federal Reserve’s obsession with inflation and their urgent…
Earnings Season Begins, Falling Inflation, Labor Force Recovery
Equity markets are rallying into earnings season, despite unusually high uncertainty surrounding earnings estimates. Recent banking issues have put a spotlight on commercial real estate. Inflation data…
Bank Casualties: A Result of the Steepest Rate Hikes in Modern History
In the wake of the March 10th demise of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been thrust into the center of the latest economic crises. More specifically, banks with a large number of uninsured deposits (those over…
Fed Tightening Always Breaks Something, Importance of Credit Availability, China Reopening
The Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy always break something but once something breaks it usually marks the end of the tightening cycle. Issues within the banking sector are likely to lead to…
A Modern-Day Bank Run, a Tale of Two Economies, Federal Reserve Credibility
Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are…
Economic Data Remains Strong, Inflation Is in Focus, Stock Buybacks Resume
Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target…
Jobs Report Shattered Expectations, Optimism Is Rising, Oil Supply Is Improving
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure…
BCM 4Q22 Market Commentary—Entering the Year Cautiously Contrarian: Considerations of Key Market Levers and Emerging Opportunities
What a difference a year makes. In hindsight the markets entered 2022 on an unstable precipice. Conversely, 2023 is beginning to look like a valley, with much of the prior excesses already stamped out in a…